822
FXUS63 KGID 171111
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
611 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy and warm today. Thunderstorms arrive from the west
  tonight. Western areas could see marginally severe winds
  (50-60 MPH) as storms move into the area.

- Lingering storms on Wednesday morning, with possible
  redevelopment in the afternoon. A few of the potential
  afternoon storms could be strong to marginally severe.

- Low rain/t-storm chances (10-30%) return for Friday, and
  become likely (60-70% chance) late Friday night through
  Saturday night.

- Cooler next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to track across the
area early this morning. This activity should exit the area to
the east by 8-9am, with dry conditions expected for the rest of
the daytime. South winds will continue to increase through the
afternoon, with peak wind gusts over 40 MPH expected for the
northwestern half of the area.

This afternoon, convection is expected to initially develop over
CO/WY in response to the deep trough ejecting through the
region. Models continue to indicate this quickly organizing into
a eastward line of storms, likely producing severe winds. CAMs
continue to indicate that storms will be on a weakening trend as
they approach central KS/NE in the 9pm-midnight timeframe. The
00Z HREF neighborhood probabilities show a 50% chance for severe
wind gusts over the Nebraska panhandle, but less than a 10%
chance as they move east of North Platte. That being said, there
is still some potential for some spotty strong to marginally
severe wind gusts in western areas as storms arrive.

This line of showers/storms then continues across the area,
potentially lingering in eastern areas past sunrise. Remnant
outflow could then could then provide a focus for a few
thunderstorms to redevelop Wednesday afternoon. If these
develop, the convective environment (MLCAPE ~2000j/kg and 0-6km
shear 20-35kts) would support a few strong to severe storms.

Thursday has continued to trend drier, with the latest NBM
completely dry for the local area. The next system could bring
us low chances for rain/t-storms as early as Friday
afternoon/evening, but the most favorable timeframe will be as
the main low moves through the area Saturday through Saturday
night. Rain chances then gradually decrease Sunday through
Monday as the system pushes northeastward and out of the area. Total
QPF on the 00Z suite has remained pretty consistent. Over the
next 7 days, the global "super" ensemble (GEFS, EPS, GEPS) shows
a 50-80% chance for 1.00" or more of rain.

Medium-range ensembles then continue to favor cooler-than-normal
temperatures next week. Low temperatures in the 40s are likely
for at least northwestern parts of the area many days next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 553 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

I kept LLWS for GRI for another hour as radar is still showing
SW winds in the 35kt-40kt range near the SFC. Today will be
breezy with southerly winds gusting in the low 30s kts this
afternoon as a low pressure system will emerge out of the
Rockies and we still have strong high pressure over Southern IL.
Tonight a front will move across NE and along the front expect a
line of TSRA. As the line of storms approaches LXN it will
begin to weaken and become a little disorganized. Decided to
VCTS with -SHRA as showers look more likely to impact TAF
sites.


Looking ahead, another low pressure system is forecast to impact
the TAF sites Friday night into Sunday. Long term models
continue to struggle with placement of the low, and
precipitation location and timing.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Beda