085
FXUS63 KGID 150920
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
420 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances (10-20%) for rain/thunderstorms tonight and
  Monday evening/night. Most areas will stay dry and severe
  weather is not expected.

- Trending windier early this week. Gusts over 40 MPH are
  possible (especially western areas) on Tuesday.

- Rain/t-storms likely (60-80% chance) Tuesday night, although
  the overall severe threat remains low.

- Off/on rain/t-storm chances (10-30%) continue
  Wednesday/Thursday. A better chance (50-60%) for more
  widespread rain/storms returns on Friday/Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A few midlevel showers or weak storms could still develop over
southern portions of the area this morning (similar to
yesterday), although there is not much support this on the
latest CAMs. Otherwise, the daytime today should remain dry
through the daytime with fairly quiet midlevel flow and
increasing southerly flow in the lower levels. Temperatures
should reach the mid to upper 80s, and south- southeasterly
winds are expected to gust to the 20-30 MPH range.

This evening into tonight, a weak shortwave will eject into the
central/northern Plains ahead of a deeper upper low centered
over the west coast. This could bring a few showers/storms to
parts of the area, although there hasn`t been a lot of
consistency on near-term models. Most locations will stay dry.

Monday will be similar to today, with low-end PoPs as another
shortwave approaches from the west. Winds will trend a bit
higher as the upper low nudges eastward towards the area.

Tuesday is likely to be the windiest day of the week, just
ahead of the advancing upper low. The 00Z EPS ensemble mean has
40+ MPH wind gusts across western parts of the area, and the 01Z
NBM has daily peak gusts nearing 50 MPH on our western
periphery.

Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, thunderstorms are expected
to develop and move in from the west as the upper low ejects
over the northern Plains. Areas to our west appear to be more
favored for severe storms given the current timing and
lackluster deep-layer shear. As such, SPC has kept the Day 3
Marginal Risk to our west. Regarding rain totals, the latest
NBM shows a 20-40% chance of 0.50" or more Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. That`s not an overwhelmingly great signal for
beneficial rain...but its better than the little to no rain
we`ve had over the first half of September.

The upper low then continues to track north-northeastward, and
will not push much cooler air into the area. As such,
temperatures remain pretty consistent for Wednesday/Thursday.
Spotty rain/tstorm chances continue as another system moves into
the west coast.

This next trough then is expected to push into the
central/northern Plains Friday into Saturday, bringing more
chances for widespread rain. In fact, this period appears more
slightly more favorable for widespread meaningful rain (compared
to Tuesday night). The NBM shows a 50-70% chance for an
additional 0.50" (or more) of rain Friday through Saturday.

Global ensembles then favor a cooldown next weekend and into
the following week. The consensus is for highs in the 70s (a few
degrees below normal), but there is a pretty large spread and
therefore quite a bit of uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

There is only a low chance (10-20%) for MVFR ceilings/vis Sunday
morning.

Southeast winds increase on Monday with gusts over 20kts likely
through the day.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels