Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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860 FXUS63 KGID 192103 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 403 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms continue this afternoon and evening. The main threat area is be to our south, but our northern Kansas counties still have some risk for significant winds as one or more clusters of storms move through Kansas tonight. - Another round of storms (some severe) is expected on Monday afternoon through Monday night, though details on timing/coverage remain somewhat uncertain. - Storm chances linger into Tuesday, with conditions trending drier Tuesday evening through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Today has been a tricky forecast. As hinted by some of the near-term models, an isolated supercell has developed in northern Kansas. This has turned eastward and is JUST south of our forecast area in Russell County as of 330pm. This storm will be capable of all severe hazards (tornado, wind, very large hail) as it slowly meanders eastward over the next few hours. In addition to this, convection contuse to develop in southwest Kansas and eastern Colorado. High-resolution models show this activity continuing to develop into one or more west-east propagating squall lines capable of dangerously strong winds (75+ MPH). That said, the WoFS (Warn on Forecast System) has been keeping the bulk of this activity south of our area entirely. Additional convection over the Nebraska panhandle could push into central Nebraska later this evening, but should be on an overall weakening trend. In fact, some of the latest HRRR runs have this activity completely dissipating before it reaches us. Monday will bring another risk for severe storms to the area. There is still plenty uncertainty on exact details regarding coverage and exact location, but it appears that the timing will favor the later side, with some models (notably the NAMnest) bringing us little to no convection until after midnight. Strong deep-layer shear (40-50kt) will allow for a continued severe threat with any storms that develop into the early morning hours of Tuesday. A few thunderstorms could redevelop Tuesday morning and early afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. Gusty northwest winds will arrive behind this front, and drier conditions are also expected to return Tuesday evening through Wednesday. The upper pattern remains fairly busy through next weekend, with continued chances for rain and thunderstorms. Above-normal precipitation continues to be favored through the Memorial Day weekend before possibly turning a bit drier as we head into June. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Rain moves out of central Nebraska this afternoon, but skies will remain mostly cloudy. Thunderstorms return to the area in the 02-06Z timeframe. There is a low (30-40%) chance for MVFR ceilings Monday morning, therefore introduced a SCT025 after 15Z Monday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Mangels