678
FXUS63 KGID 142331
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
631 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and non-severe thunderstorms are expected this
  afternoon into this evening across portions of the area.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible every day and night
  across at least a portion of the area beginning Sunday night.

- The highest chances of showers and storms will be Tuesday
  night (up to around a 65% chance) and Friday night (up to near
  a 60% chance).

- Windy conditions are expected on Tuesday with south to
  southeast winds gusting up to 25 to 35 mph.

- High temperatures will mostly be in the 80s and low
  temperatures will mostly be in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

A broad upper trough extends from over Minnesota southwestward to
over the West Coast. An upper ridge is over the Northeast and much
of the Midwest. Winds are out of the southeast across south central
and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Showers and
thunderstorms are moving across the area this afternoon but are not
expected to be severe. This activity is expected to dissipate
by/during this evening. High temperatures this afternoon will be in
the lower to mid 80s. Low temperatures tonight will mostly be in the
60s.

The previously mentioned upper trough will deepen and will extend
from the West Coast to the Rocky Mountains on Sunday. Winds across
south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas will
increase out of the southeast as a surface trough strengthens in the
lee of the Rocky Mountains. Temperatures on Sunday will warm up
slightly from today with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s.
Low temperatures Sunday night will mostly be in the mid 60s. A
shortwave is expected to move over the area Sunday night which will
increase upper lift. This will result in a 15% to near a 25% chance
of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. High
temperatures on Monday will mostly be in the lower to mid 80s. Winds
will remain out of the southeast with gusts of 20 to 30 mph during
the afternoon.

Rain and storm chances will continue (up to around 25%) Monday night
into Tuesday as upper lift increases over the area. The upper trough
will begin move over the central Plains on Tuesday. Winds are
expected to increase even more out of the south to southeast on
Tuesday with gusts of 25 to 35 during the afternoon. High
temperatures on Tuesday will again be in the 80s.

Rain and storm chances will increase up to around 65% Tuesday night
as the upper trough continues to pass over the region. South central
and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are expected to be on
the eastern edge of an upper trough to the west through Friday. This
will allow for continued chances (up to around 50%) of showers and
thunderstorms across at least a portion of the area each day and
night through the end of next week. High temperatures will mostly
remain in the 80s each day through Friday. Some areas across north
central Kansas and far southern Nebraska may experience highs in the
low 90s on Thursday with breezy southerly winds. Low temperatures
will mostly be in the 60s each night through Thursday night. A cold
front may move into the area Friday night into next Saturday which
will result in increased rain and storm chances (up to near 60%) and
cooler temperatures for next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There will
be a few lingering showers around the area this evening with
CIGS around 12k to 15k ft AGL, with dry weather anticipated at
the terminals from late this evening through the remainder of
the TAF period. There may be the potential for patchy fog across
portions of Nebraska, mainly north and west of the TAF sites as
well as in far eastern Nebraska. Chances are low regarding this
impacting the TAF sites so did not include this in the TAFs.
Expect clearing skies with a few remaining cirrus through the
day Sunday.

Winds will be out of the S to SE through the period, generally
at around 10 kts this evening, although potentially briefly
gusting to 20-25 kts near any showers. Otherwise, late tonight
through Sunday morning winds will be 6-10 kts. Southerly winds
are expected to increase by Sunday afternoon, sustained at
12-15 kts and gusting to near 25 kts.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Hickford