562
FXUS63 KGID 180601
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
101 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms may be possible this evening but with
  strong capping in place, thunderstorm chances are uncertain.
  Instability and shear are there for storms to become severe IF
  they develop. If they do, the most likely areas would be
  across south central Nebraska west of a Beaver City-Kearney-
  Greeley line.

- Strong winds will continue through the overnight hours tonight
  with wind speeds sustained at 25-35 mph and gusts to around 45
  mph.

- A cold front will move in Tuesday and stall over the area
  through Wednesday. Wherever the front stalls can expect
  rainfall amounts of over 2" (Tuesday through Wednesday). Wednesday
  is expected to be much cooler with highs only in the 60s and
  70s.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday
  through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

This evening/tonight...
As a surface low moves into western and central Nebraska this
afternoon/evening, strong winds ahead of it will impact the
forecast area. Sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts to 45 mph
(perhaps a few even stronger) are expected across south central
Nebraska and north central Kansas up to around sunrise Tuesday
when winds start to diminish (gusts to 30-35 mph will still be
possible though). There is a chance of severe thunderstorms this
evening but with warm air aloft again in place, this continues
to be uncertain. IF storms develop, there is enough instability
and moisture for thunderstorms to quickly be severe with hail
to the size of golf balls and wind gusts to 60 mph or more.
Shear is limited but should be enough for severe storms, again
though, if storms develop at all. If they do, the most likely
area for severe weather will be along and west of a line from
Beaver City to Kearney to Greeley, Nebraska. Either way, most of
the forecast area is expected to remain dry.

Tuesday and Wednesday...
As the surface low shifts northeast, a cold front will sink into
the area Tuesday before shifting southeast into central KS and
southeast NE and stalling there through Wednesday. High
temperatures are a little up in the air Tuesday, especially
across northern portions of the area as temperatures will be
dependent on how quickly the front moves across that area.
Still, highs will be in the 70s and 80s. Surface heating ahead
of the front should enhance instability enough for storms to
fire off just ahead of and along the frontal boundary Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Some of these storms may also be severe
with large hail and strong winds.

Wednesday, the front is expected to stall around the
southeastern portion of the forecast area. This will allow for
rain and storms to sit over the same area for a period of time.
With high precipitable water values, model guidance is calling
for somewhere in the 2"-5" rainfall amounts Tuesday through
Wednesday wherever this front stalls...while that area can
handle a good amount of rain, flash flooding/area flooding may
still be possible. Wednesday is expected to be the coolest day
of the forecast period with highs only in the 60s and 70s.

Wednesday night through Thursday...
The front will shift back to the north Wednesday night-Thursday,
bringing heavier rainfall to northern portions of the forecast
area. This is expected to be less rainfall than areas further
south get, however, as the front is continued to progress north
of the area by Thursday evening.

Friday through the weekend...
Ridging aloft will allow temperatures to warm back into the 80s
across the area Friday, and a little warmer with highs in the
80s to low 90s over the weekend. Friday "should" be mostly dry,
but with the cold front still lingering across South Dakota and
northern Nebraska, our northern counties may see a few showers
and thunderstorms. Saturday, another front will move through,
bringing more rain and thunderstorms chances over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Latest VWP from the radar indicating that 60KT winds out of the
south are screaming across the region this morning...ahead of a
cold front which is expected to track southeast across the
local area today. Expect these strong winds aloft...and marginal
LLWS (given the strong surface winds) to continue through the
morning hours...eventually letting up around 18/14Z as the
surface winds slowly start to shift and weaken ahead of the
approaching front. Expect MVFR CIGS to then settle in as
well...and a chance for a VCSH around midday...before more
predominant SHRAs and TSRAs develop along the front around
18/22Z...and continue through the end of the TAF period as this
front is expected to stall near or just southeast of the
terminals...bringing a prolonged period of unsettled weather.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Rossi