518
FXUS63 KGID 022301
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
601 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms will likely impacts portions of the area
  tonight. Winds gusts of 70-80 MPH will be the primary concern,
  but several hail (1+ inch) and an isolated tornado cannot be
  ruled out. The threat is greatest between 8 PM and 3 AM.

- In addition to the severe weather potential, a brief period of
  potentially torrential rainfall could result in flash
  flooding, especially for areas that already have very
  saturated soils.

- Off and on small chances for additional showers and
  thunderstorms are expected both Tuesday and Wednesday,
  although Severe Weather does not appear likely over this
  period.

- After a couple days of prevailing dry weather (Wednesday-
  Thursday), shower and thunderstorm chances return Friday and
  Saturday.

- Temperatures through the period will be fairly seasonable with
  high temperatures forecast to be mostly in the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms impacted much of the local
area through the early afternoon hours, with the responsible
cluster of storms finally weakening over the past couple of
hours as it tracked further east. As skies clear, expect
temperatures climb in to the lower to mid 80s by late afternoon,
allowing instability to build across the local area.

Later this afternoon, expect the upper level disturbance moving
across Wyoming to help trigger a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms across the high plains that is expected to hold
together and eventually transition into a MCS later this evening
and into the overnight hours as it crosses the local area.
While initially, there will be a large hail (and an isolated
tornado) threat with any discrete cells that form to our west,
think by the time these storms reach our western doorstep
(between 1-3Z), they will have formed into a line with severe
hail still possible (around 1 inch) but straight line winds of
70-80 MPH becoming the greater concern. While there is still
some uncertainty on how things will develop, the area remains in
an enhanced risk for severe weather which is supported by most
meso-scale models which develop a line of severe storms across
central Nebraska and north central Kansas - so stay weather
aware tonight.

After tonights system rolls through, expect more isolated shower
and thunderstorm activity through the daytime hours Monday,
before another upper level disturbance brings and uptick in
shower and thunderstorm activity late Monday night into
Tuesday. While widespread severe weather is not expected with
this next system, cannot rule out the possibility of at least a
strong thunderstorm late Monday night or Tuesday given the
amount of instability and forcing from the passing trough.

Thereafter...confidence is increasing that things will dry out
mid-week as high pressure to our west spreads across the plains,
with non-eventful northwest flow prevailing both Wednesday and
Thursday. Late in the week, however, the ridge is expected to
flatten and some additional weak passing disturbances should
bring a return to some shower and thunderstorm activity both
Friday and Saturday. While uncertainty in severe weather that
far out is very low, certainty in severe weather this evening
and overnight is on the high side, and again, local residents
are encouraged to remain weather aware.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 553 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VCTS/TSRA will move across the area this evening. Looking at the
latest model guidance, expect at least VCTS to impact KEAR/KGRI
at 01Z/02Z respectively, with +TSRA shortly afterward. With the
strongest storms this evening, there will be the potential for
large hail up to golf ball size and damaging winds of 60+ kts.
Expect a brief period of MVFR visibility as storms move over the
terminals this evening. Winds will be southerly ahead of the
weather system and generally SWrly as the system moves across
the terminals, then southerly again behind the storms. VFR
conditions will return after the storms depart late tonight and
prevail through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Hickford