865
FXUS63 KGID 220912
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
412 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thursday`s severe thunderstorm risk upgraded to "SLIGHT"
  across the entire forecast area. Storms seem most likely
  (70-90%) during the Thursday late evening and overnight
  hours.

- Thunderstorms could return Saturday afternoon into Saturday
  night but with lesser confidence (30-50%) and more scattered.

- Holiday weekend high temperatures will generally be in the
  70s. Most of the daytime hours should be dry, although there
  will be some chances (20-40%) for rain at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Today...
Rain showers across our Kansas counties should end prior to
dawn and then all areas are expecting dry conditions through the
rest of today and tonight. We expect a lot of sunshine today and
thus warmer temperatures with highs back into the 70s.


Thursday (Severe Weather Threat)...
Most of the day time hours should be dry and warm with highs in
the lower 80s. Thunderstorms are likely (70-90%) to form along
the cold front to the northeast of our forecast area Thursday
evening and then slide east southeast across the area during the
late evening and overnight hours. The most likely time for these
storms to impact our forecast area will be after 7 PM and
possibly not until after midnight.

There is a smaller possibility (20-30%) that a few isolated
thunderstorms could form in the warm sector ahead of the cold
front anytime after 4 or 5 PM. The most likely storm mode will
be a line of thunderstorms along the front, but again can not
rule out isolated supercells in the warm sector or further
south along the cold front/line of storms where the forcing is
weaker and shear vectors are more perpendicular to the front.
There could be at least some tornado threat and large hail
threat with any supercells that develop in the warm sector or
that can remain more discreet Thursday evening. Overall the main
severe threat will transition into a wind threat along the line
of storms over time through the overnight hours.


Friday (Cooler and Dry Between Systems)...
Highs will fall back down into the mid 60s to lower 70s.


Holiday Weekend (Storm Chances)...
The best chance (30-50%) for thunderstorms will be ahead of a
quick moving upper trough late Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night. This upper trough is pretty quick moving and we don`t get
much time for return moisture to flow back into the region.
Therefore, dewpoints Saturday afternoon may only rise back into
the 50s with the marginal instability being the limiting factor
for possible severe thunderstorms.

We get into northwesterly flow aloft Sunday and Monday behind
the departing upper trough. Surface winds should also generally
be northwesterly bringing in drier air Sunday and Monday. We do
have 20-40% NBM rain chances in the forecast for now on Sunday
and Monday with cooler temperatures aloft, but overall am not
expecting any kind of rain out (Sunday/Monday) as any rain would
likely be short lived and not overly heavy.

Temperatures over the holiday weekend will range from the upper
40s to lower 50s for lows and mainly 70s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

We have some rain early this morning southwest of our TAF sites,
but this rain should remain south of our TAF sites. Therefore,
we will continue with a dry TAF. The wind will be light
throughout the period and shift from westerly early this morning
to southerly by later this afternoon. VFR ceilings are expected
to persist with decreasing high clouds towards dawn.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely