Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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198 FXUS63 KGID 270544 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1244 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and move across the area from northwest to southeast this evening. There may be some gusty winds and small hail with these storms, but organized severe weather is not expected. - Dry and pleasant weather is expected Memorial Day with highs in the 70s and low 80s. Monday will be breezy, with gusts north of I-80 up to 30 mph in the afternoon. - Most areas remain dry Tuesday and during the day Wednesday, with showers and thunderstorms returning to much of the area Wednesday evening, persisting through the end of the work week and slight chances continuing into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 This evening: A shortwave moving across the central Plains will allow showers and storms to develop later this afternoon and this evening. CAPE and shear values are not super impressive, but steep mid- level lapse rates (8 degrees C/km) and DCAPE values of near 1000 J/kg indicate the potential for an isolated marginally severe hail/wind threat...and the HRRR has been consistently trying to latch on to convective gusts of around 50 mph for the past few hourly runs. Still, while an isolated storm may produce marginally severe hail/wind as they move into the area, this is expected to be isolated and storms should weaken as they move southeast, especially after sunset. Monday and Tuesday: Monday, high pressure will move over the region, leaving the area mostly dry with highs in the 70s and low 80s both days. Monday will be breezy, especially north of I-80, where gusts up to 30 mph are expected in the afternoon. Tuesday night and Wednesday: A messy shortwave / area of low pressure will develop across SW KS, OK and northern TX Tuesday evening, and a few showers and storms may make it as far north as our southwestern counties Tuesday night and Wednesday AM. Otherwise, an upper ridge will help keep the area dry and warm the rest of Wednesday...highs will be in the 70s and low 80s once again. Wednesday night through Friday: The pattern is expected to change to a wetter one as the ridge is pushed out of the area and a series of troughs/shortwaves march across the region. Starting Wednesday evening, there will be at least a 30 percent chance of showers and/or thunderstorms through Friday evening. Currently, the best chances look to be Thursday evening/night as one of the stronger fronts move through, but model guidance does diverge some on the timing of this and how widespread precipitation will be, so that can be expected to change. While not in an official outlook, this stronger frontal passage may also be our next chance for severe weather, but details are too murky to be certain...just that it will be something to watch out for. Next weekend: Going into next weekend, there will be a slight chance of showers and storms but model guidance diverges far too much to say beyond that. Obviously, the forecast for next weekend will resolve more throughout the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR through the period. Lgt W-NW winds early this morning will bec brzy by midday, and esp this aftn with sustained winds 12-17kt, and gusts 25-30kt. Quiet conditions and decreasing winds are forecast for Monday evening. Confidence: High. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...Thies