Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 252343

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
643 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 417 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

After much of the day being quiet, finally getting some
thunderstorm  development across central portions of the CWA.
Upper air/satellite data showing continued generally westerly flow
in place across the region...and really much of the CONUS. At the
surface, the main feature is a stationary/warm front draped
through the heart of the CWA. Across far southern NE/north central
KS, SSWrly winds gust near 25 MPH at times...while further north
winds are more easterly but pretty light. Have had plenty of sun
all day, allowing temps to climb well int the 80s and lower 90s
across the southern half of the CWA, and along with dewpoints into
the 60s, seeing hefty amounts of instability in place. While
there isn`t a great upper level focusing mechanism, the sfc
boundary is in place and with peak heating, isolated activity (at
least at this point) has developed. Any storms that develop will
have the potential to quickly become severe with the fuel
available...and while large hail/wind are the primary concerns,
certainly can`t rule out a tornado near that sfc boundary.

As we get into this evening, many models show any of this activity
waning in coverage...with focus then turning to the west for the
rest of the overnight hours. Thunderstorms have already started to
develop out west over eastern WY/CO, and the main question will
be with how much of that activity can survive this far east. Most
models agree that at least some activity makes into our CWA, aided
by an increasing LLJ, but there are some uncertainties with the
overall coverage. Have at least slight chance PoPs across the
entire CWA, with slightly higher PoPs focused across the northern
half of the CWA. The threat of strong/severe storms will continue
through the overnight hours.

Looking to tomorrow and tomorrow night, currently have the entire
daytime period dry, though there is an outside chance there may be
some lingering activity in the east first thing in the morning.
Otherwise, another shortwave disturbance will be bringing more
storm chances tomorrow night. Similar to today, expecting to see
thunderstorms develop late tomorrow afternoon out west, gradually
pushing east through the CWA late evening/overnight. Once again,
strong/severe storms can`t be totally ruled out.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 417 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Little overall change in the thinking for the latter part of the
work week and upcoming weekend, with the dry forecast remaining in
place. Models are in good agreement showing the upper level
ridging starting to build north through the Plains during the day
on Thursday, a trend that continues into the weekend - thanks to a
large low pressure system set up over the Pac NW/southward
digging trough along with another low pressure system shifting
south out of the Hudson Bay area into the NErn CONUS. The
amplifying pattern looks to push any shortwave disturbances well
north of the CWA. Similar to the upper levels, there isn`t a ton
of change with the surface pattern Thursday through Sunday. In
general, the CWA looks to be set up between higher pressure over
the eastern CONUS and lower pressure over portions of the
Rockies...keeping winds southerly. Winds may be breezy at times,
but speeds are not looking overly strong. The upward trend in
temperatures is still on track, well into the 90s for most
locations, near 100 Fri-Sun.

Sunday night and into the start of the next work week, models
showing the upper level ridging may start breaking down as that
Pac NW system pushes further east. Periodic thunderstorm chances
return to the forecast, along with slightly cooler temps in the


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Models suggest that ongoing thunderstorm activity will remain
south of the terminal areas...and additional thunderstorm chances
later tonight will primarily be focused to the kept
mention of thunderstorms out of the TAF at this point. Will
obviously be keeping a close eye on things. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are currently expected through the period. Due to area
activity and a lingering weak sfc boundary, winds have been and
will continue to be variable...though confidence in later tonight
is not high. Winds are expected to turn more southerly for the
latter half of the period.




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