Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 271732
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1232 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Record high temperatures possible again today, but this time
Hastings has the better chance of breaking the record. The record
high for today in Grand Island is 97, but it`s only 93 in
Hastings. The current forecast high temperature today in the Tri-
Cities is around 95. Yesterday Grand Island had tied the record
high of 100 while Hastings came up 3 degrees short of the 100
degree record hitting 97 for a high.

An upper level trough will begin to push into the High Plains
Sunday afternoon helping to generate strong to severe
thunderstorms from eastern Colorado into portions of western
Kansas and western Nebraska. These thunderstorms will slide east
during the evening hours and gradually die out later tonight
perhaps somewhere over our forecast area. The best chance at
catching a few of these storms before they die out will be across
our western zones west of Hwy 183 mainly after 8 pm. Can not rule
out these storms making it east of Hwy 183, but it`s not as likely
and it would be after 10 or 11pm if they did get west of Hwy 183.
These storms could still be strong or marginally severe when they
try to enter our western zones with hail and gusty winds the
primary threats.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Monday...
The upper trough will continue to slowly work east and the severe
weather threat will also slide further east and include the
western half of our forecast area generally west of Hwy 281.
MLCAPE values will likely be over 3000 J/KG across our west by
Monday afternoon, but deep layer shear will be fairly low at less
than 30 kts until increasing later in the evening. Thunderstorms
will form west of our forecast area during the late afternoon
hours and then slide into our western forecast area during the
evening and overnight hours. These storms will likely die out
somewhere over our forecast area Monday night. Primary threat will
be wind and hail during the evening hours over western zones.

It will still be very hot on Monday with our forecast area in the
warm sector out ahead of the storms during peak heating.

Tuesday...
The upper trough will continue to slide further east into the
central and northern plains and much of our forecast area will be
in a favorable zone for possible severe thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening hours. We`ll have to see if there are any
left over morning thunderstorms from the Monday night activity and
where the boundaries set up, but this is our best chance at seeing
widespread thunderstorms across the forecast area some of which
could be severe. Instability should be high with shear being more
marginal, but sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms given
the high instability. Can not rule out an isolated tornado, but
the weaker low level shear profile lends me to believe we are
primarily looking at a severe wind and hail threat.

We do expect somewhat of a cool down with more clouds and storms
in the area.

Wednesday through Saturday...We expect an upper trough to develop
over the western United States and this could send us pieces of
energy that give us some off and on low end chances of
precipitation. It appears that most of the dynamic energy with
this trough will pass north of our forecast area (Dakotas)Friday
and Saturday. So our thunderstorm chances are fairly low during
this period, unless it ends up tracking more south. Temperatures
will remain above normal running from the mid and upper 80s to the
lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Significant Wx: Crosswinds at EAR this afternoon.

This afternoon: VFR with no clds at or below (AOB) 10K ft. SSW
winds becoming S-SSE 13-19 kt gusting up to 25 kt. This will
result in crosswinds at EAR. Confidence: High

Tonight: VFR with no clds AOB 10K ft. Winds diminish to S 6-12
kt. Some marginal LLWS but magnitude not high enough to include
in TAFs. Confidence: High

Mon thru 18Z: VFR in no clds AOB 10K ft. Light S winds increasing
to 10-20 kt by 15Z. Confidence: High

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

...Records That Will Be Threatened Today...

Record High Temps for Sunday:
Grand Island....97 in 1912 (Forecast: 95F)
Hastings........93 in 2006, 1974, 1913 (Forecast: 95F)

Record Warm Low Temps for Sunday:
Grand Island....67 in 2006, 1969 (Ob this AM: 72F)
Hastings........68 in 1931 (Ob this AM: 69)

These records warm lows were broken this AM. RER`s will be sent later.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Kelley



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