Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 051800
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
100 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022

Coverage of showers/storms has over-performed model guidance from
yesterday, and we will likely have at least a few storms in the
area through daybreak. Fortunately, these storms have been below
severe criteria and this trend is expected to continue.

As has been advertised for several days, today is expected to be
the hottest day of the week. That said, temperatures have been
nudged downward slightly to adjust for yesterday’s performance.
Regardless, we are looking at highs in the 97 to 105 range from
north to south, and heat index values should still push above 105
degrees for most, if not all, of the area.

Convective development for later this afternoon remains somewhat
uncertain. It does appear the the “main show” will be well to
our north/northeast in a corridor of high over South Dakota and
northeast Nebraska. Even so, we will have fairly strong forcing
from shortwave aloft and latest CAMs still develop at least
scattered thunderstorms over a good chunk of our area in the late
afternoon and evening. Storm mode would favor multicells and a few
embedded supercells, but cell interactions and the overall
“messy” nature should limit any tornado potential. Main
threats are large hail and damaging wind, and localized flooding
cannot be ruled out given saturated soils in some portions of the
area.

In the wake of these thunderstorms, Wednesday has trended cooler
for most of Nebraska, but the front looks to stall before pushing
into northern Kansas. Therefore, temperatures and heat indices
will once again make a run into the upper 90s and 100s south of
the state line. Therefore, the heat advisory was extended to run
through Wednesday for our 6 Kansas counties. This front will then
be a focus for additional thunderstorm development Wednesday
evening through the overnight. The entire area has a good chance
to see at least some thunderstorms, and the NBM has continued to
advertise likely PoPs.

Thursday will be cooler for the entire area, but even then we are
expected to have highs in the mid 80s which is just a couple
degrees below our climatological normals. Another round of
scattered thunderstorms are expected through the evening and
overnight as another shortwave moves across the central/northern
Plains.

We dry out for Friday and Saturday, with temperatures gradually
returning to above-normal levels by Sunday. In fact, some areas
could easily see heat index values over 100 degrees again. Chances
for rain/thunder then return to the area, but confidence in
details is low at this point.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022

Significant weather: Thunderstorms and wind shift from S/SE to NE
forecast late this evening into the overnight.

First 6 hours: By far the quietest and most straight-forward
portion of this TAF period, with only high clds and S wind around
10kt gradually turning towards the E/ESE by 00Z. Confidence: High.

Rest of the period: Forecast becomes more complex this evening as
cluster of tstms over SD continue moving SE, likely forcing an
outflow boundary through the terminals sometime this evening.
Estimated this to occur about 03Z, though as often is the case
with strong convective clusters, this could be too late. Latest
hi-res guidance has shown some consistency in developing scat
tstms along and behind the outflow towards midnight that could
persist several hrs given slowing progression of outflow with
time, and continue weak lift of moist airmass. Tried to pinpoint
period with best chcs with a -TSRA group, generally around 05Z to
11Z, though expect refinements to this with later TAFs. Should see
decr tstm potential around, and esp after sunrise Wed. CIGs should
lower to 5-8K ft with any convection, and more intense convection
could be even lower. Some models hint at potential for some
stratus to move in behind the convection Wed AM, but not enough
confidence in timing/placement/extent to go anything more than SCT
attm. Confidence: Medium.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Thies


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