Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 222053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
353 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Quiet through the short term periods as a weak ridge approaches
the local area from the west and a few high clouds stream across
the plains. With ample sunshine this afternoon...have already
increased temperatures a couple of times...and now it looks like
widespread 70s will be realized over the next hour or two. These
mainly clear skies and diminishing winds overnight will make for
near ideal radiation cooling conditions as well...and consequently
lowered lows tonight a couple of degrees in most spots.

For Tuesday...expect temperatures to be a bit cooler than this
afternoon as cool air aloft continues to filter in behind this
mornings front...with 850 MB temps 3-4C below this afternoons.
While there will be increasing high clouds throughout the
afternoon hours...these are expected to have minimal impact on
afternoon readings...and sided towards the warmer side of
guidance...with highs roughly 5-7 degrees F below this afternoon
forecast temps.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Clouds are expected to thicken up across the local area Tuesday
night as moisture continues to stream north across the local
area...associated with the upper level trough transitioning out of
the desert southwest. At this looks like precip should
hold off until about daybreak Wednesday across our western
counties...with a progression eastward during throughout the day.
While very high chances for precipitation are in the forecast for
much of the local area from Wednesday afternoon through at least
midday Thursday...anticipate overall precip totals to be on the
modest side...with around one quarter to one half an inch of total
accumulation expected with this event. That should be a
fairly widespread light precipitation shield...and just about
everyone should see at least some light wetting rainfall between
Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures cooling back down below
normal thanks to the cloudy and occasionally wet conditions.

Thereafter...expect another upper level disturbance to cross the
local area Friday afternoon and evening in northwesterly flow to
bring a small chance of precip back to the local area. This
disturbance should be quick lived...however...with little
accumulation expected. Late in the weekend...both the GFS and EC
are bringing another quick shot of precip across our north...with
even a bit of rain snow mix possible...but opted to remove mention
of any snow in forecast until certainty increases in both
precipitation chances and temperature profile.

Overall...expect a and wet start to the extended
periods...with near seasonal temperatures over the upcoming weekend
with small and uncertain chances of precip Friday and again
Saturday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period with some passing
high level clouds and generally light winds. Expect Northwesterly
winds to continue near 10 KTS through the afternoon hours...before
they diminish and become light and variable after sunset as
surface high pressure nudges into northeastern Nebraska. Expect
winds to shift and become southerly on Tuesday on the backside of
the departing area of surface high pressure...generally remaining
10 KTS or less.




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