Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 040555
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1255 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Overall the weather pattern is shaping up to be pretty quiet and
mainly dry for nearly a week.

The upper trough which brought our wintry weather and cold air will
lift north into Canada (Manitoba) this weekend...leaving low
amplitude/fairly zonal flow across much of the CONUS on Saturday.
At the surface a 1027 mb surface ridge will build south across the
central/eastern portions of the interior plains states tonight,
with winds becoming light/variable under the influence of the
ridge axis. This will lead to another night of chilly temps in
the teens/20s before milder air arrives over the weekend.

Saturday the surface ridge axis departs to the east with southerly
winds returning. Mid level temps moderate several degrees from
Friday to Saturday but have some concerns on how long mid level
cloud cover holds on and whether clouds impact high temps. Have
kept readings conservatively cool around the 50 degree mark,
lower than MOS but still not a bad day compared to Thurs/Fri
conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

On Sunday, flow aloft begins to transition southwest ahead of an
upper low off the coast of northern CA. Warmer air will continue its
gradual trek eastward with 60s expected for highs. Southerly winds
will be on the increase Sunday with gusts 25-30 mph. Heading into
Sunday night, models are not in the best agreement on how things may
evolve. The GFS and to some degree the ECMWF suggests the potential
for elevated convection, whereas the NAM develops low clouds/
drizzle/fog overnight with the increasing moisture. Also, SREF probs
also showing potential for lower vsbys Monday morning and if the
fog/stratus solution verifies and will need to monitor for reduced
vsbys. For now, just maintained low pops for showers and isolated
non-severe storms.

The start of the workweek will feature the warmest days of the
next seven days with temps well above normal in the 70s to around
80F...in ridging aloft ahead of the western CONUS upper low. In
the dry, warm airmass will need to monitor for fire weather
conditions especially across portions of north central KS and
western portions of our cwa both Monday and Tuesday aftns.

A progressing northern stream upper trough translating south from
Canada across the Upper Midwest region will send a cold front
through our area and cool temps for Wednesday/Thursday. Towards
the end of the upcoming week (late Thursday/Friday), precip
chances return to the forecast as the western upper low pressure
system moves into the Rockies and emerges onto the plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Sunday)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2020

Significant wx: MVFR to IFR cigs

A band of MVFR stratus has been slowly backing SW into the CWA
this eve. This has not been handled well by some 00Z models (GFS
is completely lost), but latest RAP/HRRR/HRRREXP appear to have a
better handle on it. These models continue to move/expand this
stratus W/SW with time tonight, and even suggest some lowering to
high end IFR cigs possible after about 09Z. This general evolution
seems reasonable given veering winds from current NE direction to
SE by 14Z. Once stratus deck arrives, doesn`t appear to be much
to cause improvement until mixing incr mid to late morning. This
should help the deck lift and scatter 15-17Z. Expect much less
clds for the aftn with a steady SE breeze around 10kt, with some
gusts around 18kt at EAR. Confidence: cigs - medium, wind - high.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Thies


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