163
FXUS63 KGID 250013
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
613 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Yet another chance for flurries tonight into Saturday morning.

- Cooler over the weekend, then warming next week.

- A more active pattern (including multiple opportunities for
  wintry precipitation), arrives for the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345M CST Fri Jan 24 2025

Skies are currently mostly clear across the area, post-frontal
midlevel clouds (along with possibly some light snow) will
slide into the area this evening. Snow is most favored over
western parts of the area, but even here accumulation is very
unlikely.

Gusty north to northwest winds continue on Saturday, resulting
in slightly below normal temperatures (highs in the low to mid
30s). Sunday will be slightly warmer as winds return to the
west. Temperatures then return to the 50s on Monday and Tuesday
as the trough of colder air shifts eastward and west to
northwesterly surface winds continue.

Attention then turns to a cutoff low that is forecast to move
out of the southwestern CONUS late next week. This could bring
wintry precipitation to the area, but details in
timing/track/intensity all remain quite uncertain. Temperatures (and
therefore precipitation type) will also be a complicating
factor. This system will not pack much cold air with it, so all
precipitation types (rain, snow, freezing rain, sleet) are still
"on the table." The 12Z global ensembles (GEFS/GEPS/EPS) along
with the 19Z NBM all showed a slight uptick in snow
probabilities, but still only show a 30-40% chance for 1" of
new snow through next Saturday.

Beyond that, models hint as a more active pattern, with
additional chances for precipitation for the first week of
February. Temperatures also trend cooler, and below-normal
temperatures are looking fore favorable for at least the first
7-10 days of February.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility and precip-free
weather through at least the vast majority of the period,
despite plentiful mid-high level clouds and ceiling commonly
around 10K ft. AGL. That being said, there is a low chance
(currently deemed 20-30%) that some flurries and perhaps even
outright light snow could fall overnight for a time, but laying
down no more than a dusting of accumulation. Wind-wise,
direction will remain fairly consistent throughout (mainly out
of the northwest to west-northwest). However, speeds will vary,
with the lightest near-to-below 10KT prevailing tonight into the
first part of Saturday daytime. Thereafter, the late morning
through late afternoon will fairly breezy (sustained speeds
commonly around 20KT/gusts 25-30KT) before easing toward the
very end of this valid period.

- Ceiling/visibility/possible light snow details:
As touched on above, particularly the 03-09Z time frame tonight
features a small (20-30%) chance for flurries and/or outright
light snow, with KEAR probably slightly more favored than KGRI.
IF this snow materializes, cannot completely rule out a period
of MVFR visibility and/or a low-end VFR ceiling (closer to 5K
ft.). Considered introducing a PROB30 group to cover this
potentially "sneaky" chance of light snow, but given
considerable uncertainty that it will occur at all, opted to
leave any snow mention out of TAFs for now and will amend/update
if needed.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Pfannkuch