Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 140526
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1226 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018

A well amplified upper level pattern is in place this afternoon
across the CONUS, with the main features/lows easy to pick out in
satellite imagery. Showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually
stream north, driven by low pressure currently centered roughly
over the OK panhandle area. The precipitation has come into the
CWA slower than what was forecast, and while the brunt of the
activity is across KS, there have been isolated showers up as far
as the I-80 area. Sky cover has also been on the increase through
the day, with the CWA now under mostly cloudy to overcast skies.
At the surface, the pattern remains on the weaker side, keeping
winds on the light side around 10 MPH...and generally southerly
with low pressure off to our west and northwest.

Looking ahead to tonight through tomorrow night, the overall
story hasn`t changed, with conditions being driven by the main
upper level low. Models are in pretty good agreement showing it
gradually sliding to the north and east, by 12Z tomorrow looks to
be centered over portions of central KS..then moving toward
northeast MO by evening. Tomorrow night, models show the system
starting to fill as it continues pushing east into the Midwest.
Precipitation chances will continue to spread across the CWA
tonight and into tomorrow, as the better mid level frontogenetical
forcing/def band develops/moves into the area. Main changes to
the forecast included raising PoPs through the daytime hours
tomorrow, esp across the southern half of the CWA, resulting in
more of a gradient across the CWA. It`s possible it may end up
being an even tighter gradient, just not overly confident in how
much activity the far N-NWrn areas are going to see. Throughout
the period, suppose a few storms could be strong with instability
still in the area...but shear is pretty weak and lower/mid lapse
rates will also be on the lower wise, so the overall svr threat is
low.

Otherwise, winds remain on the lighter side throughout the period
(perhaps 10-15 MPH tomorrow), gradually making a transition from
the current southerly winds to more northeasterly winds for
tomorrow/tom night. Another change to the forecast was to lower
high temperatures for tomorrow, expecting overcast skies and with
expected precipitation. Depending on where the bands of heavier
precip set up, the forecast for those spots is still probably at
least a few degrees to warm. Currently have mid 70s forecast for
areas along/south of I-80, closer to 80 to the north.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018

Expecting a break from the preciptiation to start off the long
term period Wednesday. Shortwave upper level ridging looks to be
in place, set up between the departing system and another making
its way in from the Northern Rockies. This next system will bring
the CWA its next chance for precipitation. Thunderstorm activity
looks to develop during the afternoon hours off to our NW, then
swings southeast through the area. At this point the better
chances look like they`d be near midnight through the early
Thursday morning hours. The system itself doesn`t really push
through until Thursday night, and models show the potential for
additional development along a trailing sfc boundary. Friday looks
to bring another brief break, but the unsettled weather pattern
is expected to continue on into the weekend, with periodic
thunderstorm chances.

As far as temperatures go, overall the forecast is pretty steady,
with highs in the mid 80s going Wed-Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Light rain showers continue to spread into the terminals. Along
with the showers, there could be an isolated thunderstorm.
Ceilings will be lowering through the next few hours and will be
MVFR to IFR into the day time hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...JCB


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