616
FXUS63 KGID 200531
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1231 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms largely evade south central Nebraska and north
  central Kansas this evening and overnight, though a brief
  flare up isolated strong storms can`t be ruled out late S of
  the state line.

- Another round of storms (some severe) is expected on Monday
  afternoon through Monday night, though details on
  timing/coverage remain somewhat uncertain. The trend has been
  for activity to arrive/develop later (near or after sunset).

- Storm chances linger into Tuesday, with conditions trending
  drier Tuesday evening through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Today has been a tricky forecast. As hinted by some of the
near-term models, an isolated supercell has developed in
northern Kansas. This has turned eastward and is JUST south of
our forecast area in Russell County as of 330pm. This storm will
be capable of all severe hazards (tornado, wind, very large
hail) as it slowly meanders eastward over the next few hours.

In addition to this, convection contuse to develop in southwest
Kansas and eastern Colorado. High-resolution models show this
activity continuing to develop into one or more west-east
propagating squall lines capable of dangerously strong winds
(75+ MPH). That said, the WoFS (Warn on Forecast System) has
been keeping the bulk of this activity south of our area
entirely.

Additional convection over the Nebraska panhandle could push
into central Nebraska later this evening, but should be on an
overall weakening trend. In fact, some of the latest HRRR runs
have this activity completely dissipating before it reaches us.


Monday will bring another risk for severe storms to the area.
There is still plenty uncertainty on exact details regarding
coverage and exact location, but it appears that the timing will
favor the later side, with some models (notably the NAMnest)
bringing us little to no convection until after midnight. Strong
deep-layer shear (40-50kt) will allow for a continued severe
threat with any storms that develop into the early morning hours
of Tuesday.

A few thunderstorms could redevelop Tuesday morning and early
afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. Gusty
northwest winds will arrive behind this front, and drier
conditions are also expected to return Tuesday evening through
Wednesday.

The upper pattern remains fairly busy through next weekend, with
continued chances for rain and thunderstorms. Above-normal
precipitation continues to be favored through the Memorial Day
weekend before possibly turning a bit drier as we head into
June.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Low ceilings and/or visibilities are expected overnight into
Monday morning. The timing and ceiling height/visibility are
somewhat uncertain. VFR conditions are expected by 19z Monday.
Low ceilings/visibilities are once again possible after 00z
Tuesday. Winds will be mostly light and variable. Storms are
possible beginning around 00z Tuesday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Schuldt