Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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364 FXUS63 KGID 192108 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 408 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible across the forecast area through tonight. Best chances look to be across northwestern portions of the area, but at least 20 percent chances are in place area-wide. A few strong storms with small hail/gusty winds will be possible, but severe weather is not expected. - Periodic disturbances moving through the area keep preciptiation chances in the forecast, mainly Thursday through Saturday, and Monday night through Wednesday. Overall confidence in the location/timing of these chances is not high. - Hotter temperatures are expected to return to the area, with widespread 90s by Monday/Tuesday. Chances of heat index values near/over 100 will also be increasing early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 403 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Currently on into tonight... Upper air and satellite show the area sitting under continued southwesterly flow...set up between high pressure anchored along the East Coast and troughing along the West Coast. At the surface, winds remain easterly across the forecast area, set up on the southern side of high pressure centered over the MN/Dakotas border region, with a frontal boundary extending along the KS/OK border northeastward into the Great Lakes. Scattered showers and few weak storms to start the day gradually diminished through the morning hours, and outside of a few sprinkles here and here, the early afternoon hours have been dry. That being said, radar imagery showing more scattered activity across western NE/KS working its way east as another subtle embedded upper level shortwave disturbances moves out onto the Plains. Sitting on the cool side of the surface front with plenty of low-mid level stratus hanging around (though there have been a few more spots of sun getting through recently), it`s resulted in a cooler day with overall little instability to work with...so any storms that do work their way in to the forecast area not expected to be severe. Thanks to those handful of breaks in the clouds, highs this afternoon for most locations are going to end up a few degrees warmer than expected...3PM obs currently in the low- mid 70s for all but far eastern locations. Through the overnight hours, though for most locations it could end up being dry, hard to totally rule out precipitation chances...so CWA-wide chances remain in the forecast. Models continue to show the overall best chances clipping NWrn portions of the and spreading northward, where better lift from the increasing low-level jet will be focused, with activity possible further east along a surface warm front that will start gradually pushing north. These storms are not expected to be severe, better deeper layer shear is north vs the better instability (maybe around 1000 j/kg) is offset from that, located further south. Can`t rule out a few strong storms with small hail/gusty winds. Thursday through Saturday... Overall, there hasn`t been any significant changes in the forecast, which continues to have periodic, overall lower confidence precipitation chances. In the broader picture, models are in decent agreement showing the southwesterly flow currently in place remaining largely in place Thursday and Friday, though the main area of high pressure aloft is sinking southward closer to the Gulf Coast region. Friday night on through Saturday night, aided in part to a stronger system moving east across Canada, the main upper high becomes more elongated, spread across most of the southern CONUS, resulting in more zonal flow across the forecast area. We`ll remain in a location with the potential to be affected by any embedded shortwave disturbances. Plenty of questions remain with timing/location of these disturbances and how much of the forecast area is affected...current forecast keeps the better chances mainly in the later day/overnight time frames, and mainly focused across the Nebraska portion of the coverage area. As far as temperatures go, after the below average temps today, highs warm right back up for Thursday through Saturday...with highs generally in the mid 80s- low 90s. Sunday through Wednesday... Upper level flow looks to complete the transition to become northwesterly late saturday night into Sunday, as that low pressure system/troughing pushing across Canada digs south as it approaches the eastern CONUS, pushing the center of the upper high into the Desert SW. The forecast for Sunday and Monday is currently dry, but confidence in that isn`t overly high...as models aren`t showing this upper level ridging being strong enough/extended far enough north to really push the track of any disturbances north of the forecast area. Will see how models trend in the coming days. Do have precipitation chances returning for Tuesday/Wednesday, as another stronger system moves into the Pac NW, breaking down the ridge a bit. Expecting another bump up in temperatures, with widespread, solid 90s for Monday/Tuesday...along with potential for heat index values over 100. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Short term models showing chances for precipitation this afternoon have diminished, but do return later this evening/tonight. There are differences between models with whether any activity moves into the terminal areas, so kept any mention as VC at this point. Have VFR conditions this afternoon, with MVFR (potentially IFR) conditions developing this evening/tonight...potentially lingering through the of this TAF period. Easterly winds currently in place remain that way this afternoon, but are expected to turn more southeasterly, then southerly this evening/tonight. Speeds look to remain around 10-15 MPH. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...ADP