Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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196 FXUS63 KGID 181734 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1234 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong southerly winds...with occasional gusts to 45 MPH... will gradually diminish across the area this morning as a cold front approaches from the northwest. - Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of this cold front by mid-afternoon, with quarter sized hail and 60 mph wind gusts being the primary concerns. - After the severe threat diminishes this evening, more widespread non-severe showers and thunderstorms are expected to fill in across the region, with rainfall totals of 1-2 inches...with locally higher amounts...possible. This could result in some localized flooding. - Much cooler temperatures (60s & 70s) and continued unsettled weather is expected Wednesday, with temperatures returning to normal (mid-80s) and eventually above normal (90s) by the end of the week and through next weekend. In addition...off and on small thunderstorm chances will be possible across at least parts of the local area each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024res A cold front can be seen on satellite rapidly moving across western Nebraska this morning. As this front reaches the local area, strong southerly winds across the region early this morning should rapidly diminish. This front is then forecast to stall...roughly near the Tri-cities corridor, eventually becoming the focus for shower and thunderstorm development by midday. While instability is significantly lower than the previous few days, cooler air aloft should allow for the development of thunderstorms along the front...some of which could become strong to marginally severe. Given the more modest instability (500-2000J/KG) and adequate shear, think the biggest threat will be hail to size of quarters along with some 60 mph wind gusts...with this threat focused during the the late afternoon through evening hours along a fairly narrow corridor near and on the warm side of the cold front. As the severe threat diminishes during the late evening hours, models bring an upper level disturbance out of the southwest over the frontal boundary...which should bring a more widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms to the local area...and potentially some widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches...with locally higher totals...when all is said and done by Wednesday morning. This could result in some localized flooding...especially across areas that have received significant rainfall over the past week. With the flooding threat expected to be localized, shied away from a flash flood watch for any of the local area. With the cold front essentially washing out across the local area on Wednesday, a cloudy, cool and unsettled day appears to be in store, with high temperatures not expected to climb out of the 60s across a large portion of the area. This break in heat will be relatively short lived, however, as temperatures will rapidly return to normal as skies clear on Thursday...climbing back above normal for the end of the week and upcoming weekend. While the heaviest and most widespread precip is expected across the area over the next 36-48 hours, there will be additional chances for showers and thunderstorms through the period as a fairly active, mostly zonal, upper level flow pattern will bring periodic chances for weather across at least parts of the area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: A cold front moving through the area today and Wednesday will bring mainly MVFR CIGS (IFR CIGS possible later in the period) and periods of SHRA and TSRA to the TAF sites throughout the TAF period. -TSRA is expected to develop near the TAF sites this afternoon around 18/19Z or so...included a TEMPO group for -TSRA to try to narrow down expected impacts at the terminals. Latest models have SHRA/TSRA much of the time over southern and eastern portions of the forecast area (including KGRI) with potentially another round moving into KEAR late this evening overnight (which is why VCTS is included for KGRI through the majority of the period but there is a period where we left VCTS off in relation to KEAR). TSRA activity should decrease around sunrise across the area but showers and embedded thunderstorms will persist through 19/18Z. Around 19/12Z CIGS are expected to deteriorate further into IFR conditions. Winds: Winds will become northwesterly as the cold front passes through (around 18Z-19Z today at KGRI). There will be isolated gusts of 20-25 kts through the afternoon, becoming 10-15 kts sustained through the evening. Tonight into Wednesday morning, winds will become northeasterly, also at 10-15 kts. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Hickford