218
FXUS63 KGID 220552
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms for
  portions of central Nebraska this evening. Main timeframe is
  5pm to midnight.

- Only low chances for thunderstorms (10-20%) Saturday through
  Tuesday. Rain/t-storm chances increase again mid to late next
  week.

- Heat returns early next week. High temperatures around 100
  degrees are expected on Monday, and heat index values may
  exceed 105 degrees in some spots.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

As of 3pm, radar shows a few thunderstorms already developing
over SW Nebraska, moving northeast. The expectation is that this
will continue to develop into a few clusters, impacting areas
north of Highway 6, mainly in the 5pm to midnight timeframe.
Convective parameters are not "off the charts" by any means, but
are at least marginally supportive of some supercell features
(1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 35kt effective shear). Hail and
wind will be the main threats, but some localized flooding is
also possible. The 18Z HRRR shows some isolated maxima of 3.00"
of rain along the Hwy 92 area, but that is certainly on the
higher end compared to the 12Z HREF.

Northwesterly winds arrive on Saturday as a cold front moves
through the area. There is a low chance for a few showers or
storms to redevelop in our southeastern zones along this front,
but near-term models largely keep this to safely our southeast.

For many areas, tomorrow is expected to be the coolest day
through next week. Upper level riding moves into the area early
next week, allowing temperatures to climb into the 90s on
Sunday, and to near 100 degrees on Monday. There are low chances
for thunderstorms each of these days, but midlevel capping will
keep storms pretty isolated.

A series of upper shortwaves will break down the ridge and bring
us increasing thunderstorm chances from the middle to end of
next week. Temperatures return closer to climatology (upper 80s
and low 90s) for Wednesday/Thursday. Thursday through Friday
appears to be the next best chance for rain for most of the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The wind has become northeasterly early this morning from the
outflow behind the departing thunderstorms. The wind will remain
light early this morning, but should eventually become more
westerly and then northwesterly later this morning behind the
cold front. VFR ceilings are expected to continue throughout
most of the period, but can not rule out a brief period of MVFR
ceilings this morning before clouds scatter out later this
afternoon.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Beda/Wesely