703
FXUS63 KGID 280545
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe storms are expected to cross parts
  of the local area this evening and through the overnight hours.
  Hail to the size of half dollars and wind gusts to near 60
  mph are both possible.

- Temperatures will rebound to near climo on Friday, with high
  temperatures expected to reach the mid to upper 80s.

- Pleasant temperatures are expected this weekend with highs in
  the 70s and 80s, along with mainly night-time thunderstorm
  chances each day.

- Warmer with continued storm chances next week, with highs in
  the 80s and 90s and mainly small chances for thunderstorms
  (20-40%) each day. Heat Index values could climb near or over
  100 in spots both Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

A few breaks in the could cover can be seen making their way
across the local area this afternoon. This clearing should
allow for additional instability to build across the area, with
models indicating 2-3K J/KG of CAPE will be present by late
afternoon. As some isolated convection develops to our west and
encounters this unstable airmass, could see a line of strong to
severe storms develop and propagate across the local area.

Already seeing some CU/TSRA development near the panhandle on
Satellite, which is in line with where storms are expected to
develop in model data. If the last couple runs of the HRRR are
correct, should see some storms reach western Dawson county
around 00Z...tracking eastward roughly along the I-80 corridor.
If this does come to fruition, given the instability (2-3K
J/KG), elevated nature of the storms (5Kft cloud bases) and
modest deep layer shear (0-6KM around 45 KTS), some of these
storms could become severe, with large hail (1.25"+) and
damaging wind gusts (60mph+) being the main threats, with the
strength of storms expected to diminish during the late evening
hours.

Dry weather is then expected for the daytime hours on Friday
behind this evenings disturbance, with warming temperatures (in
part due to increased sunshine) expected across the area. A cold
front will cross the area during the daytime hours Friday, but
this should be more of a wind shift, with the "cooler" air
holding off until the weekend. For the late afternoon and
evening hours, models are keying in on another upper level
disturbance moving off the high plains, which will bring another
chance for some severe storms to the local area. Timing will
likely be similar to this afternoons activity, with large hail
and damaging wind gusts being the main concerns. There will be
an outside chance for a Tornado as well tomorrow afternoon (2%)
as LCL heights will be a bit lower, but given that the low
level shear is weak, did not include a mention of a possible
tornado in the HWO.

For the weekend, expect pleasant temperatures each day, with
Highs only climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the
region. There will also be small chances for thunderstorms,
mainly during the evening and overnight hours, but these chances
will be minimal and most areas seeing little to no
precipitation.

With the upper level ridge returning to the local area late
Sunday and amplifying on Monday, expect temperatures to soar
back above normal to start next week, and with dewpoints
expected to be in the lower 70s, Heat Index values could reach
the 100 to 105 degree range across parts of the area -
especially across portions of north central Kansas. This ridge
will shift east into the Great Lakes Region by Tuesday
afternoon, with additional disturbances in the upper level flow
expected to bring off and on small chances of thunderstorms to
the local area through the end of the week. While there are
chances for precip across at least parts of the local area in
each six hour forecast block next week, when all is said and
done, there will be plenty of dry periods and some areas will
likely not see much in the way of beneficial precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant weather: Low level wind shear (LLWS) through around
dawn.

Strong Srly low level flow and 45-50kt LLJ causing LLWS will
continue for a few more hrs before veering and weakening around
dawn. Winds will continue to veer to Wrly by mid-morning, and
NWrly by the aftn. Once the LLJ shifts E, sfc speeds should be
weaker and mostly in the 8-12kt range.

While an iso shwr/storm can`t be ruled out with a weak
disturbance this morning, confidence in coverage/placement too
low to include at this time. Have backed off on the low level
cloud cover given recent model trends, and now expect to remain
VFR through the period. Could see another chc for weakening
storms late in the period, but again, confidence too low to
include in this round of TAFs.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Thies