346
FXUS63 KGID 041132
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
632 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms today. There is only a low
  chance for severe weather in southeastern portions of the area
  (Osborne to Geneva to the southeast).

- Dry and hot on Wednesday. There is a chance (~40% for tri-
  cities) that high temperatures reach 90 degrees.

- More chances for thunderstorms Friday through the weekend,
  although the threat for organized or widespread severe weather
  appears low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 437 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are currently moving
across the area in response to an upper shortwave moving through
the northern Plains. Near-term forecast models show coverage of
rain/storms increasing later this morning later this morning
(9am to 12pm) before a surface cold front and drier air arrive
from the northwest.

By late afternoon, this cold front will have pushed through most
of the forecast area, except for our southeastern areas.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
ahead of and near the front late this afternoon into this
evening (4pm to 8pm). MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg and 0-6km
shear of 30-40kts will support a few strong to severe updrafts
for a brief period before the cold front pushes storms to our
southeast this evening. Dry conditions are expected to return to
the entire area by 10pm, at the latest.

The entire area should will see a break from thunderstorm
chances Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday could also be the
warmest day of the year so far in some areas. Aided by a steady
westerly wind, high temperatures are expected to range from the
mid 80s to mid 90s (warmest in the south). Thursday will be a
touch cooler, thanks to the passage of another frontal boundary
Wednesday night. That said, high temperatures are still expected
to be near-normal (highs in the low to mid 80s for most).

The area remains in northwesterly upper-level flow Friday
through the weekend and into early next week. Perturbations will
bring off/on chances for rain and thunderstorms. Of course
convective details are extremely uncertain, but the overall
threat for severe weather appears to be relatively low
(especially for early-mid June). The latest CSU-MLP
probabilities only show the 5 percent contour in portions of the
area Friday through Monday.

As we head into next week, deterministic models favor increased
troughing over the eastern CONUS, and ensembles favor below-
normal temperatures (highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s).
Ensembles also slightly favor below-normal precipitation into
next week, although the signal is not overly strong for our
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period at GRI/EAR.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms move through the
area this morning, although the potential for thunder is too low
during this timeframe to include a VCTS. A few thunderstorms
could then redevelop later this afternoon near or just south of
the terminals.Skies clear this evening and remain clear through
tonight.

Winds turn to the northwest this afternoon with gusts over
20kts. Winds become light/variable again this evening through
tonight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels