Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
025 FXUS63 KGID 101746 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1246 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather is expected during most of the day today, but there will be a chance (20-50 percent) of showers/storms moving in from the west this evening and making their way southeast across the area tonight and Tuesday morning. These storms are not expected to be severe. - Additional low chances for showers/storms (around 20 percent) return both Wednesday evening and Thursday evening. Better chances (40-70 percent) return Friday evening into the weekend. - Very warm temperatures expected this week. The hottest will be Wednesday and Thursday, with heat index values well into the 90s. A few locations, mainly across north central Kansas, may see heat index values exceed 100 degrees Thursday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Today through Tuesday... A high pressure ridge moving across the Plains will help to maintain warm and dry conditions during the day today. High temperatures will be in the 80s. An upper trough currently over southern Canada and the northern Rockies will move east today, pushing the upper ridge out. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across ern WY and CO/wrn NE mid- to late afternoon and move east through the evening. These are expected to move into our forecast area late tonight and into Tuesday morning. Models continue to exhibit a weakening trend with these storms as they move into a drier and less favorable atmosphere to sustain thunderstorm strength (especially as it will be after dark and we will have lost daytime heating) across central Nebraska and Kansas, so severe weather is currently not expected. High temperatures will be in the 80s, with southerly winds gusting to 15-25 mph (strongest west of Highway 281 this afternoon). Tuesday, expected some of those showers and storms to linger through the morning, but hard to say how late in the morning. Latest CAMs really trend chances way down after daybreak, with some of the other deterministic guidance has this lingering through the morning and even into the afternoon across north central Kansas. Kept low chances (20 percent) in the forecast to account for this. Highs will again be in the 80s. Winds will be lighter but switching from southwesterly to northerly to easterly throughout the day. Wednesday and Thursday... A strong area of high pressure over the desert Southwest will expand northeast into the southern and central Plains mid-week, bringing the hottest temperatures so far Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures will be in the 90s across most of our forecast area both days, with temperatures approaching 100 degrees across north central Kansas Thursday afternoon (and heat index values approaching 100 degrees both days, perhaps exceeding it in some places Thursday afternoon). Fortunately for our temperatures, quasi-zonal flow aloft just over and to the north of the area are currently expected to keep temperatures/heat index values just below the need for any kind of heat headline (model guidance indicates just a 20-40% chance for north central KS to reach 100 degrees Thursday). That being said, it would not take much change in the forecast at all for temperatures to get to the point where we need one, so we will be watching this closely over the next few days. Headline or not, it will be hot Wednesday and Thursday. There will also be a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms both Wednesday and Thursday evening, mainly associated with shortwaves moving across the area and coincident with the strongest daytime heating. Model guidance has been trending drier with both of these evenings, with mainly the Canadian model sticking to the precip solution whereas the ECMWF and GFS keep the area dry. Keeping the slight chance of PoPs in the forecast for now, but confidence is low. Friday through the weekend... An upper low will move into srn California Thursday and quickly move into the central Plains by this weekend. Friday evening, a shortwave trough ahead of this system will be the impetus for showers and thunderstorms which will persist into Saturday. The trough will move in from the southwest at some point over the weekend, although model guidance does not show much consensus at to precisely when...The GFS swings it across the area Saturday evening whereas the ECMWF brings it through Sunday. Either way, this looks to be the most active portion of the forecast period and while a little too early to tell, there may be the potential for severe storms late this week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Expecting dry conditions overall, the exception being for a few hours after midnight, when a weakening area of precipitation could work its way into the terminal areas. Confidence in activity making it far enough east to impact the terminals is not high, thus left the mention as VCSH at this point. Generally southerly winds continue this afternoon, and can`t rule out some gusts near 20 MPH, with speeds closer to 10 MPH expected this evening on through the end of the period. Winds may be more variable when that surface boundary and precip chances arrive, then become more west-southwesterly. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...ADP