572
FXUS63 KGID 032258
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
558 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly between midnight tonight and noon Tuesday, isolated to
  scattered (overall spotty) shower and largely
  weak/thunderstorm activity will roam our coverage area (CWA).
  Cannot totally rule out some small hail (up to nickel size),
  but overall the severe threat is low.

- Later Tues afternoon-early evening (mainly 4-8 PM), we`ll need
  to closely watch the far east-southeast fringes of our CWA in
  case a severe storm or two develops over that area. However,
  this is a low probability, with better chances focused just
  BARELY east-southeast of our CWA altogether.

- Although not everybody will welcome it, especially those
  places that saw a little TOO much rain during the last week
  will surely welcome what is still expected to be a solid 60+
  hour stretch of DRY/THUNDERSTORM-FREE weather from late Tues
  evening through at least Thurs night (a chance to dry out).

- Between Friday-Monday, various, low-confidence chances for
  showers/storms re-enter our forecast, but overall these look
  fairly unorganized for the most part.

- Temperature-wise: Following an overall very "normal" May, June
  continues to start off very "normal" as well, with highs each
  of the next 7 days in the 80s most areas, and overnight lows
  mainly between the mid 50s to low 60s. In other words, very
  typical readings for this time of year, and zero sign of an
  early heat wave.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 450 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

-- PRIMARY CHANGES TO THIS 7-DAY FORECAST PACKAGE VERSUS THE
 PREVIOUS ONE (issued this AM):

- Honestly, nothing that is truly worth specifying. Mainly just
  "cosmetic"/minor tweaks to temperatures and rain/thunderstorm
  chances (PoPs). Want to emphasize that PoPs Friday and beyond
  are particularly murky on a day-to-day basis, and should
  definitely not be taken too literally this far out in time.


-- 7 DAY FORECAST OVERVIEW/HIGHLIGHTS (greatest detail focused
 on the first 48 hours):

- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM:
Once any light rain vacated our extreme southern KS CWA by
around 9 AM, the remainder of today has been dry and uneventful.
Aloft, water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data
clearly depict a fairly compact mesoscale convective vortex
(MCV) VERY slowly churning eastward across northeast KS...just
barely southeast of our CWA. In the wake of this disturbance,
skies over our CWA this afternoon have ranged from mostly sunny
to partly cloudy (northwest) to partly-mostly cloudy
(southeast). At the surface, extremely light winds from this
morning have gradually given way to steadier southerly breezes
(but still only sustained 8-15 MPH at most). Temp-wise, highs
are on track to be near to just barely below our early-AM
forecast, with most places topping out 82-85 degrees.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Through at least midnight, confidence is fairly high in our
going dry forecast, as any spotty activity currently to our
southeast (associated with the KS MCV) should remain just to our
southeast, and lack of forcing/weak capping should keep any
"random" convection from popping with the heat of day.

However, between midnight and sunrise, have 20-40% PoPs for
isolated/scattered thunderstorms gradually spreading back into
the CWA (mainly from west to east), as the next disturbance
arrives from the west, in tandem with the development of a
seasonably-weak southerly low level jet. There is minimal
concern for any severe activity, largely owing to seasonably-
weak deep-layer wind shear of only 20-30KT, but with elevated
instability (CAPE) reaching 1000+ J/kg in some spots, some
spotty stronger storms (hail up to around nickel size) certainly
cannot be ruled out. Overall though, fully agree with SPC in
keeping our thunderstorm outlook as only "general thunder).

In other departments tonight, this is actually slated to be the
overall warmest/mildest night of the next week, as the
combination of increasing mid-high level clouds and lighter-
but-steady southerly breezes mainly 5-10 MPH will keep things
from dropping very far, and have lows aimed mainly 63-65.

Especially if skies remain clearer a bit longer and/or winds
trend a bit lighter, there is at least a small chance that parts
of our CWA could see at least brief fog development late
tonight-early Tues AM, but with a better signal for fog
remaining to our south have kept any official fog mention out of
our forecast for now.


- TUESDAY DAYTIME-EARLY EVENING:
A mainly low-end chance for perhaps a spotty strong to severe
storm or two is clearly the main concern. In the mid-upper
levels, the southern reaches of a shortwave trough that will
mainly swing across the Dakotas/southern Canada will cross the
Central Plains, which in turn will drive a fairly weak cold
front across our CWA from west to east.

Between sunrise and early afternoon, there will be a
continuation of the isolated/scattered showers and storm
activity from late tonight, as it gradually shifts east across
the CWA while ending from west to east. As with late tonight,
MOST of this activity should be fairly weak, but a very rogue
instance of marginally-severe hail (around quarter size) just
cannot be ruled out and bears watching.

Then, later in the afternoon-early evening (especially 4-8 PM),
a broken line of strong to severe storms is expected to form
along the leading edges of the cold front. IN THEORY, the vast
majority of this activity should develop just BARELY east-
southeast of our CWA and not be our issue. However, any slowing
of this boundary whatsoever could easily put a brief severe
storm risk into play for especially places mainly southeast of a
Geneva NE-Tipton KS line, so this bears close watching. Hail to
around quarter size/gusts to around 60 MPH would be the main
threats, with marginal deep-layer shear only around 30KT being
a limiting factor to a potentially bigger threat.

In other departments Tuesday:
- winds will gradually shift from westerly to northwesterly as
  the day goes on (from west to east), with speeds commonly
  10-15 MPH with slightly higher gusts.
- There is some modest uncertainty in high temps, given question
  about cloud cover, frontal speed etc. We are aiming for a
  modest gradient from near-80 far northwest, to mid-80s most
  other areas, with any upper 80s likely confined to our extreme
  south in KS.


-- LATER TUES EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
Once any possible storms clear our extreme southeast zones
(which should be before sunset), the rest of the night looks
very tranquil, with clearing skies and light speeds/variable
direction breezes gradually trending southwesterly. Probably
cannot rule out patchy fog (especially southeast), but will let
later shifts take a closer look for formal inclusion. Low temps
will be a good 5-10 degrees cooler than tonight (mainly 53-59).


- WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
Aloft, we will reside under northwesterly flow, as a shortwave
dives southeast into the Great Lakes. We continue to have high
confidence in a dry forecast for at least the vast majority of
the CWA, but we`ll have to keep an eye on especially our eastern
zones JUST IN CASE some storms developing in eastern NE/western
IA manage to develop far enough west to impact us (low
probability for now). Otherwise, the main story is that this
looks to be the overall-warmest day of the week most areas, with
westerly breezes helping drive highs into the mid-upper 80s
Nebraska, and upper 80s-low 90s KS and also the Furnas County
area.


- THURS-THURS NIGHT:
The dry forecast continues as we get a bit more influence from
the eastern fringes of upper ridging to our west. However, in
the wake of a weak cold front high temps should be 5+ degrees
cooler than Wed (mainly 80-85).


- FRIDAY-SATURDAY:
While most of this time should be dry most areas, various, low-
confidence rain/thunderstorm chances return as ridging flattens
enough to make us more prone to subtle disturbances in
continued northwesterly flow. Nothing looks overly-organized at
this point, but at least Marginal severe probably cannot be
ruled out (it`s June after all). High temps 80s.

- SUNDAY-MONDAY:
Continue low-confidence thunderstorm chances, although
especially by Monday there are hints of MAYBE a more
widespread/organized round as both the ECMWF/GFS hint at our
flow turning more zonal (west-east) and a surface front passing
through. However, this is a WEEK out and confidence is low at
best. High temps mainly low-mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 549 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Quiet weather expected this evening, but into the overnight
expecting VCSH and decided to put a window in for possible VCTS
tomorrow morning. Some of the models have some moisture in the
low levels, so kept the BR and increased to SCT/BKN this TAF
period. The moisture profile is better for GRI to see a MVFR
ceiling tomorrow morning, so went BKN based on current guidance.
Winds will be southerly overnight and will become WSW tomorrow
morning, then NW as a cold front is forecast to move through the
TAF sites by mid-day.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Beda