252
FXUS63 KGID 291021
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
521 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front brings cooler and drier air for the weekend.

- Thunderstorm chances return late tonight into Sunday AM, and
  again Sunday night into Monday AM. Severe weather is unlikely
  with this activity, but locally heavy rain can`t be ruled out.

- Hot and steamy conditions return for Monday and Tuesday with
  heat indices around 100-105F expected each afternoon for at
  least along and south of the NE/KS state line.

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  with all hazards Monday afternoon into Monday night.

- Active pattern with daily chances for rain and thunderstorms
  continues through the end of the week, which includes
  Independence Day. Temperatures will be seasonable in the 80s
  to lower 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 455 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A cold front is in the process of moving through the forecast
area early this morning, and with it has come a few, but very
intense, thunderstorms. This front is still forecast to clear
the area by around sunrise, taking with it any lingering chances
for storms. The rest of the day should be quite pleasant with
refreshing northerly breezes ushering in drier air and cooler
high temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Shower/storm
chances return late tonight into early Sunday AM as the current
cold front eventually stalls out near KS/OK border and some
weak mid level WAA moves atop the elevated frontal surface. This
should be mostly confined to our KS counties and severe weather
is not expected owing to weak instability. Sunday aftn-eve
should be mainly dry with continued comfortable temp/humidity
levels. Stronger WAA is forecast late Sunday night into Monday
morning in response to 35-45kt LLJ. Instability is also higher,
so could have a situation that favors more widespread elevated
convection, with perhaps even some large hail threat.

Strong Srly flow will bring hot and humid conditions back to the
area on Monday, which will likely persist into Tuesday, as well,
at least for areas along/S of the state line. Highs on Monday
have trended warmer over the past 24-48 hrs and now range from
the upper 80s from Ord to York (perhaps limited by convection
that lingers later into the day) to the upper 90s and lower 100s
S and SW of the Tri-Cities. Dew points will likely return to the
upper 60s to lower 70s...which would support max heat indices around
105F along and S of the state line. If there`s anything positive
it`s that it will at least be breezy for some modest relief. Very
little overnight relief is forecast Monday night, esp. for
areas like Beloit, given low temps only in the upper 70s...before
another hot and humid day Tuesday, though this time with much
lighter winds. Thus, seems probable that a Heat Advisory will be
warranted for at least S portions of the forecast area Mon-Tue.

The other hazard for Monday will be the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms to develop along/ahead of our next cold
front. In fact, all of south central Nebraska is in a Day 3
Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) and north central Kansas is in a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) with a potential for all modes of
severe weather. Capping could be an issue through much of the
day given H7 temps of 12-14C, but subtle height falls with
arrival of weak upper disturbance, combined with sfc convergence
along the front, could be enough to trigger at least iso to
widely scattered storms towards 00Z Tue. Strong instability and
seasonably strong deep layer shear suggests the potential for
semi-discrete supercells with all severe hazards on the table.
Tornado threat would probably be limited to Nebraska zones, to
the N of the primary low level thermal ridge over Kansas,
perhaps aided by some lingering outflow from AM convection.
Plenty of details to work out over the coming days such as
overall coverage, but if the cap can break, then significant
severe weather looks like a good possibility Monday PM.

Forecast details beyond Monday are murky, at best, but appears
an active pattern will continue through the end of the week as
SWrly to zonal upper flow and a series of weak to moderate
disturbances interact with a quasi-stationary sfc boundary. Too
soon to determine severe potential as finer scale details will
play important role...but persistently elevated PWATs around +2
standard deviations suggest areas of heavy rain and localized
flooding could be a concern - esp. if the multiple rounds of
convection indeed pan out. With the more zonal/active upper
pattern, the heat should back off after Tuesday with more
seasonable 80s to lower 90s the general consensus. This
generally covers the Independence Day holiday, so those with
outdoor plans will want to keep a close eye on the forecast.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR through the period. Could still see some iso-scat
shwrs/storms next few hrs, but then expect dry conditions from
around dawn through the end of the period. Some models have a
brief period of MVFR CIGs early this morning, but kept as a SCT
group as current obs are less aggressive. Winds will vary from
NE to NNW through the period, with highest speeds 12-14kt and
gusts 17-21kt being from mid-morning through early aftn. Light
NE winds and mainly clear skies expected Sat eve/night.
Confidence: Medium.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies