Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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614 FXUS65 KGJT 012130 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 330 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development remains a threat each afternoon through early next week with gusty outflow winds more likely than wetting rainfall. - Temperatures remain above normal this weekend into early next week. The warmest temperatures of the season thus far looks likely by midweek. - The warmer temperatures means runoff will be well underway with most major stem rivers showing rises over the next several days. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 330 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Scattered showers and storms have developed as anticipated this afternoon, focused along and north of I-70. This is in response to the passage of a weak wave embedded in the zonal flow with said wave providing enough instability to fuel some locally stronger storms. Either way, gusty outflows in the 40 to 45 mph range will be the primary concern though some isolated small hail cannot be ruled out. A few nocturnal showers are possible into Sunday morning before the shortwave slides east of the Divide but we`ll see yet another weak ripple track across the north on Sunday. So, we can expect another round of diurnally- driven showers and storms across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado into Sunday evening. The potential for notable wetting rain remains low as the lower levels of the atmosphere stay dry. Outside of convection, dry weather will prevail through the short term with some occasionally breezy conditions as winds gusts to near 25 mph. It`ll also continue to be unseasonably warm through the period with Sunday`s highs reaching 3 to 6 degrees above normal while overnight lows tonight and Sunday night remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 330 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 On Monday a low pressure makes landfall in the Pacific Northwest. This system tracks eastward over the Northern Rockies during the day. It will push some moisture into our area as well as a weak cold front. The higher terrain especially across the northern tier of the forecast area looks to have some instability. So there is a slight chance for orographic showers and storms in the afternoon and evening. The front could also provide a focus for shower development, which sweeps through overnight. Showers could reach as far south of the I-70 corridor, but the coverage should stay isolated. On Tuesday that system tracks over the Northern Plains and drags drier air behind it which filters into our area. The weak cold front starts to lift northward as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the south. This marks the beginning of a warmer than normal period for our region. There is modest subsidence associated with the ridge so the chances for convection are slim Tuesday and Wednesday. The high pressure becomes centered over New Mexico later in the week. High temperatures could reach the lower 100s across the desert valleys with upper 70s expected in the mountain towns. On Thursday we get some moisture return so that introduces a slight chance for showers and storms in the mountains mainly across the south. On Friday a low pressure makes landfall in the Baja and moves over the Desert Southwest. This appears to increase the moisture return and therefore the chances for afternoon convection on the mountains. The models are struggling with how to handle that low pressure to our southwest so confidence in the forecast is low attm. The moisture does not look to exit the region so we could have a repeat of Friday. The warm temperatures do not go away either, which may limit how much rainfall reaches the ground with any of these showers. This increases the potential for gusty winds as well. Perhaps localized rain cooled outflows could help some locations cool off otherwise it will be warm. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1121 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, favoring the mountains. Outside of activity, expect mostly to partly sunny skies and breezy afternoon winds to 25 mph at times. Gusty outflow winds can be expected near any shower or storm activity with gusts up to 45 mph possible. Showers diminish this evening with dry weather returning through Sunday morning. Overall, VFR will prevail through the TAF period. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MMS LONG TERM...KJS AVIATION...TGJT