619
FXUS65 KGJT 231130
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
530 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will be bring some isolated showers, maybe a
  quick storm, to the CO/WY border and the Continental Divide
  this afternoon and evening.

- Widespread gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph will be common across
  eastern Utah and the Western Slope today.

- Partly to mostly cloudy conditions continue Friday and into
  the weekend with the chance for afternoon showers and
  thunderstorms in the mountains both Saturday and Sunday.

- Temperatures start a noticeable warmup Monday onwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 151 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024

IR satellite is clearly showing the circulation around an area
of low pressure currently located over Idaho. A cold front can
also be seen stretching from western Wyoming down into northern
Utah and Nevada. Ahead of the front, clouds are starting to fill
in over NE Utah and extreme NW Colorado. While the closed low
will drift across central Wyoming today, the cold front
associated with the low will move through the northern half of
the CWA today. Models continue to highlight some light precip
along the CO/WY border this afternoon and evening before
shifting to the Divide (central mountains northward) this
evening through the early morning hours on Friday. Chances range
from 20 to 40 percent and with QPF amounts ranging from .1 inch
along the WY border and .2 inches over the Divide, there`s
really not much to get excited about precip-wise. Might see a
rumble of thunder as well, especially over the mountains. Upper
level support for the low pressure and front will be in the form
of a 90kt jet streak and as it moves over the region, we can
expect some gusty winds to materialize. Latest guidance
continues to suggest widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph from late
this morning through 7PM, give or take. The front will make it
through the northern valleys but won`t manage to make it much
further south. Thus, highs for the northern valleys will be
about 4 to 8 degrees cooler than yesterday while elsewhere,
little change to highs from what we saw yesterday, still a few
degrees below more usual late May values. We will also have to
contend with a bit more mid to high level cloud cover today as
well.

Friday will a quiet day as the next disturbances out west will
be poised to start moving through. This doesn`t happen until
Friday night though so outside of some more clouds moving
overhead Friday will be a quiet day. The northern valleys will
warm up some while the rest of the CWA will see similar
temperatures to those seen today.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 151 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024

Cooler than normal conditions will continue on through the weekend
as anomalously low heights remain in place from the Canadian
Prairies into the Western CONUS. The final trough/shortwave to dig
into this general trough arrives to our area late Friday into
Saturday and will bring shift to wetter conditions through this
Holiday weekend. Temperatures will stay some 5 to 10 degrees below
normal in most areas Saturday and Sunday with the threat of snowfall
returning to the high country. At the moment, the biggest
impacts appear to be limited to areas closer to timberline and
above but snow flakes could fall as low as 9000 feet Saturday
night into Sunday morning when the coldest air aloft filters in
behind the trough passage. Memorial Day will be transition day
as we warm back up closer to normal and ridging across the
Rockies builds in for a few days. Highs by Tuesday and Wednesday
will push to above normal readings of 5 degrees or more in most
areas. Again this cool down has slowed the down the snowmelt
and rivers levels will be trending downward through early next
week. It is possible many river basin have seen their seasonal
peak as SWE graphs continue their precipitous decline trends. A
few basins in the central and northern CWA still hold some
decent water and will see what the next warm up has in
store...but overall..flooding remains a low probability outcome
this runoff season.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024

A cold front will move through the region today bringing the
chance for showers and a few storms along the CO/WY border and
the Continental Divide. Do not anticipate any showers affecting
TAF sites. VFR conditions will remain in place though some mid
to high level clouds will be present. Of more concern, will be
gusty surface winds of 25 to 35 mph, and occasionally a bit
higher at times starting around 18Z and persisting through 03Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT