Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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459 FXUS65 KGJT 132149 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 349 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A storm moving eastward across the Desert Southwest approaches the region tonight. Lift and moderate moisture ahead of this system is expected to bring a chance for light showers and isolated thunderstorms late tonight for portions of the Four Corners region. - Showers increase Friday with the the San Juan and central Colorado mountains favored Friday afternoon/evening. - Temperatures cool off Friday but rebound Saturday and into next week. Above normal heat combined with dry and breezy conditions from Sunday onwards is likely to bring critical fire weather conditions. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 349 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 The forecast area was under a ridge of high pressure this afternoon ahead a low pressure system circulating over the coast of southern California. Temperatures have climbed well above normal again this afternoon with Grand Junction tying the record for this date at 101. Clouds were increasing ahead of the low and a few light showers/virga had developed over the Four Corners region and the San Juan Mountains. This activity is expected to diminish this evening, but will be redeveloping later tonight as the SoCal low moves to western Arizona. As the low moves northeastward on Friday, shower and thunderstorms will increase with the San Juan Mountains and the central Colorado mountains favored, especially during the afternoon. Increased clouds combined with shower activity will bring some relief from the unseasonably hot conditions experienced over the past several days. The trough axis shifts east of the Continental Divide Friday evening bringing subsidence aloft which, when combined with diurnal cooling should bring an end to showers/thunderstorms by late evening. Thereafter, expect decreasing clouds and moderately cooler overnight lows. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 349 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 A shortwave ridge of high pressure will slide overhead Saturday behind the exiting low pressure trough from Friday. There looks to be enough residual moisture with a little bit of lift to allow for some isolated showers or storms to pop off the higher terrain particularly across the north and along the divide. Not expecting much though as drier southwest flow begins to infiltrate the area but any shower activity may generate more virga and gusty winds as a result than wetting rain. Meanwhile, low pressure troughs will be rolling over the Pacific Northwest and lifting northeast into the Intermountain West and northern Rockies this weekend through the coming week. We will see the upper level jet and perhaps a frontal boundary lay across the north, which should result in a tightening gradient with increasing southwest winds. So expect breezy conditions across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado this weekend. These breezy and dry conditions expand further southward and become more widespread Sunday into early next week as the jet dips further southward. This will lead to potential critical fire weather conditions and start getting into the areas where our fuels are deemed critical and ready to burn. The status of other zones may change, which would then expand the coverage of potential fire weather highlights. These hot, dry and breezy conditions look to last at least through Tuesday before we see a bit of a reprieve from the heat and some cooler temperatures mid week due to the influence of the passing trough and front to our north...although no precipitation is expected as we are on the wrong side of that upper level jet. After our brief cooldown, temperatures look to spike back up late next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1147 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR remains the rule today as high pressure remains overhead. Another round of gusty west through southwest winds is expected today reaching 20 to 30 mph at times. Clouds will increase in the afternoon and evening hours as the next system approaches from the southwest. Some midlevel ceilings are possible heading towards Friday morning. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NL LONG TERM...MDA AVIATION...NL