Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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099 FXUS63 KGLD 130358 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 958 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures persist across portions of the area on Thursday, mainly south of I-70 where highs will reach the upper 90s to lower 100s. - Scattered storms may develop in northeast CO and areas situated along/south of I-70 in KS Thursday afternoon. An isolated severe storm capable of producing quarter size hail and wind gusts up to 65 mph is possible, if storms develop. - Thunderstorms anticipated to develop in CO Fri afternoon will track eastward into KS-NE late Fri aft/eve. Severe storms capable of producing large hail/damaging winds are possible, in addition to locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding, especially Friday eve/night. - Return of triple digit heat expected on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 114 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Across the region this afternoon, sunny and hot conditions persist area-wide. Temperatures are currently ranging in the 90s as of 100 PM MDT. there is a surface trough currently traversing the area, providing a southerly fetch for areas east of Highway 25, and a west- northwest flow behind it. Gusts around 30 mph are occurring on either side of the boundary. Weather concerns in the short term will focus on some isolated rw/trw potential this evening and again later tonight. This will be followed by a chance for severe storms Thursday afternoon/evening. First off, a surface trough has been slowly traversing the CWA through the day and is currently pushing through the Highway 25 area, based on current wind regime. East of there, especially for locales east of Highway 83, there still remains some decent dewpts in the lower to mid 60s. While currently stable, DCape values on soundings does show some instability, so have followed the NamNest and continued a 15 pop for isolated coverage in the southeast(Gove. Sheridan/Graham counties mainly). Any storms could produce some strong gusts with inverted-v profiles. With a strong ridge aloft over the south-central Rockies providing westerly downslope flow to aid in this warmup, guidance puts a weak shortwave over the north/east portion of the ridge towards the 06z- 09z Thursday timeframe up into portion of northeast Colorado. With weak instability/moisture available, continued isolated wording for a 15 pop for a rw/trw. Winds would be main threat concern. Going into thursday, the aforementioned upper ridge begins a slow trek eastward into the southern Plains for afternoon/evening hours. This will allow a stronger shortwave to work off the central Rockies during the afternoon hours, and interact with a surface low over southeast Colorado, with a front extending eastward into Kansas. CAMs are showing rw/trw potential to develop from west to east over the CWA. Strong to severe storms are expected. Current guidance has DCape values around 1800-2000 j/kg by 21z. MUCape/SBCape values are around 1700-1900 j/kg. As a result, SPC now has much of the tri- state region under a Marginal Risk for severe storm, with hail and wind main threats. The activity does diminish from west to east overnight. For temps, looking for lows tonight to drop into a range from the lower to mid 60s west of Highway 25, into the mid and upper 60s east of Highway 25. A few locales east of Highway 83 may only drop into the 70F range. Going into Thursday, another hot day(850 mb temps +28c to +33c before front gets established) on tap with daytime highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Hottest areas along/south of I- 70. This will give way to overnight lows Thursday night in a range from the lower 60s west into the upper 60s east. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 129 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Friday morning, the Tri-State area will start out under a strong 250mb ridge with a closed low over the Four Corners region. As the day progresses, the low will move to the east- northeast and move over the CWA Saturday mid-day. This will give the region an organized system to produce storms Friday and into Saturday. In the lower-levels, an 850mb high will be sitting over the Mississippi River Valley working to fuel the LLJ and bring moisture into the region. This setup is not looking to be as strong as what we had a couple of weeks ago, but the increased moisture will cause some concern for flooding with the storms. As far as severe parameters, we could see anywhere from 3,000 to 4,500 J/kg MUCAPE, PWATS above 1.25 inches, exceeding convective temperatures, LCLs around 2-2.5 km, and EBWD shear around 20-25 kts. This type of environment would be supportive of hail, strong winds, and heavy rainfall. The biggest limiting factor, according to the forecast parameters, would be the shear, it`s a bit on the low side. The shear is low due to fairly light winds in the mid-layer (10-20 kts between 300-500 mb). We could see clusters of cells that form off of each other and become an MCS type event. The precipitation could last into mid-day Saturday, or even kick start some additional precipitation Saturday evening. Sunday, the low will clear the area and we will be under weak southwesterly flow aloft. This will give us about a 15-20% daily chance of precipitation due to shortwaves in the evenings, but nothing highly organized is expected until the weak flow is disrupted, likely Tuesday afternoon. Around this time, the pressure gradient tightens up as the low over the NW CONUS pushes farther inland. This would work to amplify any disturbances and increase chances for PoPs. By mid-next week, we could see the low moving into the Great Plains and sending a cold front through the region. This would spark up some storms, but more importantly, it would start cooling temperatures down some. High temperatures until mid-next week look to be in the low 90s to low 100s. After the cold front moves through, around Tuesday, we will likely only warm into the 80s. Overnight temperatures will follow a similar pattern and drop into the 60s each night, save for Sunday night. Sunday night, additional cloud cover and fairly strong winds from the south are expected to keep temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s. Gusts overnight could get up to 30 kts. Behind the cold front, lows will cool down into the mid 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 955 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 GLD: VFR conditions /mostly clear skies/ will prevail through the TAF period. Light and variable winds -- associated with a weak surface low over the region -- will predominate through Thursday morning, shifting to the NE-ENE at 12-17 knots mid- late Thursday afternoon (21-00Z). While isolated to scattered diurnal convection cannot be ruled out ~21-00Z.. confidence in convective development is low enough to preclude explicit mention with the 06Z TAF issuance. MCK: VFR conditions and mostly clear skies will prevail through the TAF period. Light and variable winds this evening and overnight will shift to the NW-N at 12-17 knots shortly after sunrise.. gradually veering to the NNE and NE during the day on Thursday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...Vincent