489
FXUS63 KGLD 150823
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
223 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few thunderstorms may develop east of Highway 83 in
  northwest Kansas late Saturday afternoon. An isolated severe
  thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail and wind
  gusts up to 65 mph is possible, should storms develop.

- Return of triple digit heat expected on Sunday.

- Cooler temperatures expected mid-next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Across the region this afternoon, sky cover is ranging widely
from cloudy to sunny as remnants from morning convection,
combining with new coverage from daytime heating already today,
are providing decent breaks in spots from the hot conditions 24
hours ago. As of 100 PM MDT, temperatures are in the 80s, with a
persistent southeast flow, with gusts into the 30-40 mph range
at times.

Weather concerns for the short term period will focus on the
threat for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon into the
evening hours. Also, there is a low threat east of Highway 25
for Saturday afternoon/evening.

For the rest of the afternoon hours into tonight, aloft there
is a strong upper ridge at 500mb in the south central Plains,
making a slow trek eastward. At the surface, high pressure east
of the area, combined with a low and associated front west, are
creating a persistent southeasterly flow over the CWA. Dewpts in
the 50s and 60s are resulting in moist flow covering the area
with PW values in the 1.1 to 1.4 inch range.

Guidance has a strong shortwave carrying east through the
Rockies by 00z-06z Saturday that will interact with the
aforementioned surface features to trigger convection.

The latest CAMs(HRRR, RAP and NamNest) are showing a start time
in the 23z Fri-00z Sat timeframe with convection building
across northeast Colorado. The convection does move fairly
progressively, clearing the CWA by 06z-07z Saturday. The area
remains under a Slight Risk for severe from SPC, as well as a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from the WPC. The CWA will
see all potential threats from hail, wind and even isolated
tornadoes. Flash flooding is also a possibility. Model soundings
do suggest DCape values over 1200 j/kg with inverted-v
profiles. SBCape peaks early with values initially over
2000j/kg.

The shortwave will linger over the Plains tonight into
Saturday, triggering some late day storms over eastern portions
of the CWA. CAMs are showing locales east of Highway 83 seeing
convection. A Marginal Risk for severe is issued as a result
with all threats available, especially wind and heavy rainfall.
Zonal flow ensues Saturday night allowing for a slow clear from
west to east into Sunday morning.

For temps, looking for daytime highs on Saturday to range above
normal in the lower to mid 90s. Warmest locales will be along
and south of the Interstate. Overnight lows tonight will range
from the upper 50s to lower 60s west of Highway 25, and lower to
mid 60s east of Highway 25. For the Saturday night period,
slightly warmer with lower to mid 60s west of Highway 25 and mid
to upper 60s east of there.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 223 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the long term, we are looking at the potential for showers and
thunderstorms daily next week. On Tuesday we begin to see an
increase in rain/storm chances as a cold front moves across the
area during the afternoon. while an upper trough moves
northeast over the Northwest CONUS into Canada while an upper
high builds over the Eastern CONUS. A warm front is expected to
sit over the far northern portions of the area on Thursday as
the shortwaves continue to move over the region and strengthen
a lee trough over the Colorado Plains. The best time frame for
any showers and storms will be during the afternoon and evening
hours Tuesday through Friday, with potential for showers and
storms throughout the day Wednesday. Temperatures on Tuesday
will be in the 80s to mid 90s for highs and the 50s to lower 60s
overnight. Wednesday will have even cooler highs thanks to the
frontal passage with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and lows in
the 50s to lower 60s. Thursday will be a bit warmer with highs
in the 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s. Friday
looks to be the warmest day of the extended period currently
with highs forecast to be in the 90s with overnight lows in the
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1049 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF
period. Gusty/erratic winds (in the wake of departing
convection) are possible for an hour or two at the very
beginning of the TAF period. Otherwise, expect winds
predominately from the SW at 10-15 knots.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...BV