843
FXUS63 KGLD 180040
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
640 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southerly winds expected late this afternoon into
  tonight, especially in far northwest Kansas where sustained
  winds ranging from 35-45 mph and gusts up to 60 mph are
  expected.

- Cooler then much cooler/colder (compared to the past few days)
  Tuesday through Thursday.

- Better chances for rainfall (40%-80%) Tuesday night through
  Wednesday night. Locally excessive rainfall possible.

- Highs return back into the 90s Friday through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Tonight...an isolated thunderstorm or two are possible through
about 02z before moisture from the surface through 500mb quickly
dissipates. A rather strong low level jet develops with surface
winds from the south, gusting up to 50 mph or so through about
midnight before decreasing as a cold front moves into the
northwest 1/2 of the area toward sunrise Tuesday morning. There
is a narrow corridor along the CO/KS state line to Highway 25
where DESI is showing 40%-70% probabilities of wind gusts to 55
mph, decreasing to around 10% for gusts greater than 60 mph.
Will go ahead with a High Wind Warning for locations along and
north of I-70 and along Highways 27 and 25. Low temperatures are
forecast to range from the middle 50s to lower 60s in far
eastern Colorado to the lower to middle 70s from Trenton to
Oakley east.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...the forecast area is under southwest
flow aloft, in between a trough to our west and ridge to our
east. A blend of GFS/NAM/SREF PWAT values range from 0.80 inches
across far eastern Colorado to 1.50 inches in Norton/Graham
counties with 0-6km winds in the 20-25kt range.

The morning should see quite a bit of clouds per model
850-700mb relative humidity across the northeast to southwest
portions of the area. Various model qpf forecasts support
20%-30% chances for showers and maybe a few thunderstorms in
this area. During the afternoon, a weather system is forecast to
move into the area from the southwest, supporting 20%-60%
chances for thunderstorms, mainly east of the CO/KS border. This
area is outlooked with Marginal and Slight Risks for severe
thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds the primary
hazards. Overnight, thunderstorm chances increase into the
40%-80% range with the threats becoming heavy rainfall and
potential flooding as storms potentially move over the same
areas given the flow aloft and under favorable 250mb jet
divergence.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 70s to upper
80s with low temperatures in the lower to upper 50s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...extensive low cloudiness is
forecast to reside over the area during the day, dissipating
some overnight. A mid level dry slot is forecast to develop
during the afternoon, continuing through the overnight hours.
30%-70% chances for showers and thunderstorms during the day are
currently forecast to increase into the 60%-80% range during
the night. I dont have a good feeling about pops being this high
although the placement of the higher pops across the northern
and western parts of the area looks good per GFS/NAM 850-500mb
relative humidity being the highest and qpf being higher
compared to areas further south/southeast.

High temperatures will be cooler/colder, especially compared to
the past few days but just how much is the question. Presently,
a blend of the better performing temperature guidance yields
highs in the lower 60s to around 70. MET guidance has highs in
the 50s and 60s which is reasonable given the extensive cloud
cover. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 50s
lower 60s.

Thursday-Thursday night...we remain under southwest flow aloft
with less moisture in the 850-500mb layer available compared to
Wednesday. As result, pops are lowered into the 20%-30% range
during the day with similar values across the northwest 1/2 of
the area during the night. Breezy to perhaps windy conditions
during the day and night mainly west of Highway 25 with
southerly winds gusting 25 to 35 mph. High temperatures warm
back up into the middle 80s with low temperatures in the lower
to middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

West-southwesterly flow aloft continues on Friday before a
shortwave trough moves through during the evening-overnight
hours, so we`ll continue to carry around 30-40% PoPs in this
timeframe as a sfc-850 mb low slides through the area. With
eastward progression of the upper trough, flow will veer to
become west-northwesterly for the weekend as a ridge builds over
the western CONUS with high pressure centered in vicinity of
the Four Corners region. Daily weak shortwaves moving through
the flow will keep at least slight chance to chance PoPs in the
forecast, generally in the afternoon-evening hours. Will need to
continue to monitor the severe weather potential as we near the
weekend into the start of the work week as decent shear and
instability look to be available based on current model guidance
and moisture looks to be there with PWAT values generally to
around 1-1.5 inches through much of the period, highest at the
close of the work week-start of the weekend. Another potential
impact to monitor would be another bout of breezy to windy
conditions at the close of the work week as south-southwesterly
winds increase ahead of the approaching system.

For temperatures, expecting highs in the middle 80s to low-mid
90s over the weekend, warming further into the 90s to start the
work week. Low temperatures are forecast to be generally in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Adverse
aviation conditions associated with strong southerly winds are
expected at both terminals late this afternoon into tonight..
with the relative strongest winds at the GLD terminal. Winds
will weaken and shift to the SW or W around or shortly before
sunrise. Winds will abruptly shift to the N and increase to
20-30 knots in assoc/w a cold frontal passage during the late
morning (~15-18Z).. gradually veering to the NNE-NE and
decreasing to 12-18 knots during the afternoon.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...High Wind Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 3
     AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ Tuesday for KSZ001-002-013-014.
CO...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254.
NE...High Wind Warning from 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 3
     AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ Tuesday for NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...Vincent