260
FXUS63 KGLD 150126
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
726 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for northwest
  KS and southwest NE this evening. Brief/localized wind gusts
  up to 65 mph and localized reductions in visibility associated
  with blowing dust are the primary hazards with ongoing
  activity progressing eastward across northwest Kansas and
  southwest Nebraska.

- A few thunderstorms may develop east of Highway 83 in
  northwest Kansas late Saturday afternoon. An isolated severe
  thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail and wind
  gusts up to 65 mph is possible, should storms develop.

- Return of triple digit heat expected on Sunday.

- Cooler temperatures expected mid-next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Colorado counties have been removed from Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 414. Environmental conditions and trends in radar and
observational data suggest that brief/localized wind gusts up to
65 mph and localized reductions in visibility associated with
blowing dust are the primary convective hazards with ongoing
activity progressing eastward across northwest Kansas and
southwest Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Across the region this afternoon, sky cover is ranging widely
from cloudy to sunny as remnants from morning convection,
combining with new coverage from daytime heating already today,
are providing decent breaks in spots from the hot conditions 24
hours ago. As of 100 PM MDT, temperatures are in the 80s, with a
persistent southeast flow, with gusts into the 30-40 mph range
at times.

Weather concerns for the short term period will focus on the
threat for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon into the
evening hours. Also, there is a low threat east of Highway 25
for Saturday afternoon/evening.

For the rest of the afternoon hours into tonight, aloft there
is a strong upper ridge at 500mb in the south central Plains,
making a slow trek eastward. At the surface, high pressure east
of the area, combined with a low and associated front west, are
creating a persistent southeasterly flow over the CWA. Dewpts in
the 50s and 60s are resulting in moist flow covering the area
with PW values in the 1.1 to 1.4 inch range.

Guidance has a strong shortwave carrying east through the
Rockies by 00z-06z Saturday that will interact with the
aforementioned surface features to trigger convection.

The latest CAMs(HRRR, RAP and NamNest) are showing a start time
in the 23z Fri-00z Sat timeframe with convection building
across northeast Colorado. The convection does move fairly
progressively, clearing the CWA by 06z-07z Saturday. The area
remains under a Slight Risk for severe from SPC, as well as a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from the WPC. The CWA will
see all potential threats from hail, wind and even isolated
tornadoes. Flash flooding is also a possibility. Model soundings
do suggest DCape values over 1200 j/kg with inverted-v
profiles. SBCape peaks early with values initially over
2000j/kg.

The shortwave will linger over the Plains tonight into
Saturday, triggering some late day storms over eastern portions
of the CWA. CAMs are showing locales east of Highway 83 seeing
convection. A Marginal Risk for severe is issued as a result
with all threats available, especially wind and heavy rainfall.
Zonal flow ensues Saturday night allowing for a slow clear from
west to east into Sunday morning.

For temps, looking for daytime highs on Saturday to range above
normal in the lower to mid 90s. Warmest locales will be along
and south of the Interstate. Overnight lows tonight will range
from the upper 50s to lower 60s west of Highway 25, and lower to
mid 60s east of Highway 25. For the Saturday night period,
slightly warmer with lower to mid 60s west of Highway 25 and mid
to upper 60s east of there.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Sunday, the low will clear the area and we will be under weak
southwesterly flow aloft. This will give us about a 15-20%
chance of precipitation Sunday and Monday evenings. Nothing
highly organized is expected until the weak flow is disrupted,
likely Tuesday afternoon. Around that time, the pressure
gradient tightens up as the low over the NW CONUS pushes farther
inland, moving the jet stream fairly close, if not over, the
High Plains. This would work to amplify any disturbances and
increase chances for PoPs. furthermore, at 850mb, the high
pressure system over Texas today looks to stall out over the
Mid-Atlantic Seaboard and will funnel moisture into the region
Tuesday through Saturday.

High temperatures Sunday and Monday look to be in the mid 90s
to low 100s. Tuesday will start a cooling trend (highs in the
upper 80s and 90s), but Wednesday and beyond will likely only
warm into the 80s and low 90s. Overnight temperatures will
follow a similar pattern and drop into the 60s to mid 70s Sunday
and Monday nights, and then cool into the mid 50s to mid 60s
Tuesday night and beyond. Gusts Sunday night through Tuesday
morning could get up to 30-35 kts. It`s also worth noting that
while the cooler temperatures look nice on the thermometer, the
additional moisture will make the region feel more muggy and
soupy than normal.

Monday could see some localized critical fire weather
conditions in the extreme southwestern CWA. Winds look to gust
near 25-30 kts while RH values get into the upper teens. This is
really the best chance for critical fire weather conditions as
the additional moisture will keep min RH values above 30%.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Adverse aviation conditions associated with scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are possible at both terminals this
evening.. mainly in the 00-06Z time frame.. when surface wind
gusts up to 50 knots are possible in vicinity of any storms.
VFR conditions will otherwise prevail through the TAF period.
Southeasterly winds will veer to the S tonight and SW during the
day on Saturday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vincent
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Vincent