688
FXUS63 KGLD 191930
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
130 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers/thunderstorms continues overnight, mainly
  across the northwest 1/2 of the area.

- Dry and warmer Thursday.

- Hot with highs in the 90s Friday through Sunday then 90s to
  low 100s Monday through Wednesday.

- Dangerous heat index values of 100 to 106 degrees east of
  Highway 25 Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Tonight...latest model guidance in general agreement that the
combination of 850-500mb relative humidity and higher pops should
remain focused along and west of Highway 27 through midnight before
continuing to the northwest while weakening. Given the very poor
performance of much of the guidance the past 24 hours, I`m rather
pessimistic in the precipitation forecast. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the middle 50s to middle 60s. Cant rule out some
fog in spots and next shift may need to update the forecast based on
latest data.

Thursday-Thursday night...drier air in the 850-500mb layer quickly
overtakes the area by mid to late morning, ending any precipitation
chances. Southerly winds strengthen during the day with gusts of 30
to 40 mph, highest west of Highway 25. Breezy winds continue
overnight, mainly west of Highway 27. High temperatures warm back up
into the 85 to 90 degree range with low temperatures in the
60s.

Friday-Friday night...a monsoonal type pattern sets up with an upper
trough to our west and ridge centered over the southeast states.
Unfortunately, moisture from Mexico is skirted to the south of the
area. There is a bit of moisture in the 700-500mb layer that moves
off the Colorado front range and into the northwest 1/4 of the
forecast area during the afternoon and evening, supporting 20%-30%
chances for showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 80s to middle 90s with low temperatures
in the lower 60s to middle 70s. It will continue to be windy with
southerly winds gusting to 40 mph during the day, slowly decreasing
overnight.

Saturday-Saturday night...500mb flow shifts from southwest flow
aloft to zonal with troughing to our north and an elongated ridge to
our south. Presently, dry weather is forecast. There could be a
few thunderstorms flirting with the northwest and western
corner of the forecast area in the afternoon/evening. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 80s to middle 90s
with low temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The area will be under west-northwesterly flow aloft as a ridge axis
crosses the Rockies at the close of the weekend with high pressure
centered over the southern CONUS. Low pressure moving across
Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba will work to (briefly) flatten the
ridge, promoting more of a zonal flow, and shortwaves moving through
will keep slight chance afternoon-evening PoPs, generally around 15-
20%. Towards the latter part of the long term period, ridging again
amplifies upstream as an upper low meanders along the coast of
British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest.

For temperatures, the warming trend continues with low-mid 90s
Sunday followed by return of near-triple digit to triple digit heat
by the start of the work week. Low temperatures are forecast to be
in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

KGLD...sub VFR cigs are expected from taf issuance through about
13z with VFR conditions after 14z. Surface winds will be from
the east at 10-15kts, highest around taf issuance for an hour or
two. After 14z, southerly winds increase with gusts up to 30kts.
Regarding precipitation chances, will remain pessimistic with
showers, maybe a thunderstorm in the vicinity from around
20z-06z. Will be monitoring for the possibility of br/fg
tonight.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected from taf issuance through 20z
with winds from the east around 11-13kts. From 21z-15z, sub VFR
cigs are expected with winds from the east to southeast at
speeds around 10kts. After 16z, VFR conditions return with winds
from the southeast, gusting up to 20kts. Regarding precipitation
chances, will remain pessimistic with showers, maybe a
thunderstorm in the vicinity from around 05z-13z. Will be
monitoring for the possibility of br/fg tonight.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...99