042
FXUS63 KGLD 220759
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
159 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop over portions of
  the Tri-State area today. Rainfall amounts have decreased in
  comparison to prior forecasts. Hazardous weather is not
  expected.

- Low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s are forecast for
  eastern Colorado by Monday morning, potentially allowing for
  some patches of frost. There is a concern for fog formation
  Monday morning, too.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Current observations show moisture streaming in from the south
with cloud cover over almost all of the area. Temperatures are
now holding steady in the 70`s with the cold front through the
area and the cloud cover holding temperatures. Winds are
beginning to lower a tad as the front moves further away and
mixing has been cut off by the cloud cover. These conditions
should hold through the afternoon.

Going into the evening and overnight hours, precipitation is
forecast to begin for southeastern portions of the area as the
moisture continues to stream in and shift to the northeast. An
area of surface convergence is also forecast to set up in the
southeast which will develop the bulk of the storms and
precipitation. The rest of the area may not see precip until
later in the evening as a dry streak cuts through the area.
However, as the upper trough swings through, additional storms
are forecast to fire up along the higher terrain and move east
into and hopefully through the area. The main issue again will
be the dry air intrusion and how saturated the air column is.
Current forecasts are not very optimistic with most having the
area with rain totals around a tenth or two. However, larger
amounts can be expected if the surface convergence boundary
stays near the area in the south and if enough moisture can
rotate around the whole system in the area before the higher
pressure and upper feature push it all to the east (max amounts
around an inch or two).

Tomorrow, a much cooler day is forecast as cloud cover lingers
through much of the day along with some lingering showers. Will
need to keep an eye on how much dry air moves in from the north
and how much streams in through the mid-levels. If too much dry
air is present, the cloud cover would dissipate earlier than
forecast and temperatures likely warm to around 60. Winds are
forecast to remain around 10 to 15 mph from the north as the
higher surface pressure moves into the area.

Tomorrow night, any linger cloud cover is forecast to dissipate
as drier air continues to advect into the area. Winds are also
forecast to become calm or light as the high pressure broadens
out over the area. These conditions will allow for much cooler
temperatures in the area with 30`s and 40`s possible. Eastern
Colorado and the Tri- State border area may even see frost
potential. With the clear skies and calm winds, it`ll be up to
how much dry air moves in and how much dewpoints lower.
Dewpoints in the low to mid 30`s are possible with temperatures
a few degrees warmer forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 159 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Below average forecast confidence. Forecast confidence
typically decreases with range -- `below average` in this
context is intended to communicate a further reduction in
confidence associated with /inherent to/ increased pattern
complexity -- e.g. patterns with cut-off waves, multibranched
wave interactions and potentially significant forms of
constructive/destructive interference or feedback.

Guidance continues to diverge Tue-Tue night.. as a pronounced
upper level ridge progresses east across the Intermountain West
and Rockies. Solutions via recent (00 UTC 09/22) operational
runs of the GFS/ECMWF are consistent only in the sense that they
remain inconsistent. Both models suggest that some degree of
northern and southern stream jet phasing (or interaction) within
a complex split flow regime on the eastern periphery of the
advancing ridge will foster the development of a closed low
somewhere invof the Central/Northern MS River Valley Tue night.
Poor model-to-model and run-to-run continuity essentially
precludes further discussion, other than to say that.. whatever
the outcome, hazardous weather seems unlikely. Steering the
forecast toward climatology remains the most viable course of
action at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 950 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are anticipated through 12z with winds
from the northeast around 13kts. Rain showers are possible after
about 08z. From 13z-16z, sub VFR cigs are possible along with
light rain showers and northerly winds around 12kts. After 17z,
VFR conditions return. Northerly winds around 10kts become light
and variable after 01z.

KMCK...VFR conditions are forecast through the period.
Northeast winds around 12kts at taf issuance will continue
through 08z, falling below 12kts around 09z then light and
variable after 23z. Light rain showers will be possible over the
terminal from about 09z-17z as a weather system moves over the
area from the southwest.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...99