Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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425 FXUS63 KGLD 112340 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 540 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s. - Isolated thunderstorm chances the next couple of days, with slightly better chances Thursday night. A few marginally severe storms possible. - Another precipitation system looks to enter Friday and last through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1251 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Currently, a 500mb low pressure system is sitting over Texas/Oklahoma and slowly moving east, and over the Northern Plains, there is mild northwesterly flow. Down at the surface, there is a weak convergence zone over Kit Carson county. As the day progresses, an extremely weak shortwave will eject from the Rockies and move east-southeast. This would give a chance (<20%) that a few showers or a storm could form and move into the southwestern CWA. Until around 21Z, there is a slim (~5%) chance that a brief landspout forms along this boundary in Kit Carson county. Other than this slim chance, no severe weather is expected. Overnight, low temperatures will drop into the 60s. Overnight tonight, a high pressure system will shove into southern New Mexico and Arizona, and extend an amplifying ridge over the Great Plains. This will allow southerly flow and clear skies tomorrow to raise the temperatures into the 90s and low 100s. As the ridge pushes north along the Rockies and begins interacting with the jet stream, a shortwave disturbance looks to form around 0Z. This shortwave will allow an 850mb lee low to form near northwestern Nebraska. This low will generally move east, but could dip to the south a bit and impact the CWA. A weak warm front will be draped to the south of the low and would act as forcing tomorrow evening. If our 850mb southerly flow/LLJ is able to transport moisture into the CWA, we will see some storms tomorrow evening. Getting the moisture this far west will be the difficult task, which lowers confidence of storms tomorrow night to about 15-20% at most. If any precipitation does form, it will move to the east but additional precipitation will grow to the south, and only impact areas along and east of highway 83. Around 6Z, a weak cold front attached to the low looks to gently sweep over northeastern Colorado. This creates about a 10-15% chance that our far northwestern CWA could see some showers around that time. Low temperatures tomorrow night only look to cool off into the 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1251 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 On Thursday, as the 250mb ridge amplifies over the Great Plains, a cut-off low re-enters the flow and moves to the northeast. This low provides an opportunity for fairly organized convection or occur Friday evening, and increased chances of precipitation Thursday through Sunday. At 850mb, a high pressure system near Arkansas will provide moisture to the LLJ to pull into the CWA. This looks to potentially increase PWATs well over an inch again. If this system becomes a MCS that exposes the same location to a few rounds of heavy rain, flooding will become an issue. 0C line looks to be around 16-17k kft, MLCAPE is around 2,000 J/kg, and effective shear is around 40 kts according to the GFS. Once this low moves out of the area, we look to return to southwesterly flow before as another low enters the NW CONUS. Temperatures in the long-term look to remain in the upper 80s to upper 90s, with the occasional triple digit heat. Overnight lows will only be cooling into the upper 50s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 530 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR conditions /mostly clear skies/ will rule through the TAF period at both terminals.. with cloud cover confined to scattered diurnal cumulus ~12,000 ft AGL (mainly at the GLD terminal Wed afternoon). South winds at 10-15 knots (this evening and overnight) will veer to the WSW within an hour or two after sunrise Wednesday.. further veering to the W-WNW and increasing to 15-20 knots by early afternoon (~18-20Z). Winds will abruptly weaken and become variable at/around sunset Wednesday evening (~01-02Z Thu) as deep vertical mixing abruptly terminates in concert with waning insolation and the development/onset of a nocturnal inversion. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...Vincent