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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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106 FXUS63 KGLD 280442 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1042 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms may develop over portions of the area late Friday afternoon and evening. A few severe storms are possible. At this time, brief/localized instances of damaging wind appear to be the primary hazard. - Daily potential for afternoon/evening storms this weekend into next week. - Heat index values in the low triple digits Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 735 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 As of 0135 UTC (735 pm MDT).. radar/observational trends and simulated reflectivity forecasts via the 00Z HRRR suggest little, if any, potential for convective development through the duration of the evening. High based convection presently developing along/east of the I-25 corridor (mainly south of Denver) will track east toward the CO-KS border late this evening. While brief, localized wind gusts up to 65 mph cannot be ruled out with any high-based showers/virga (by virtue of moderate to strong DCAPE, ~1200-1800 J/kg).. substantial intensification of said activity is presently not anticipated. With the above in mind, Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475 (previously in effect until 03Z UTC) has been canceled. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 315 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are a partly cloudy to mostly cloudy mix. Scattered showers are occurring around the area. Breaks in the cloud cover through the day has allowed for temps as of 200 PM MDT to range in the upper 80s to mid 90s. With a meandering surface trough over the Highway 27 corridor, winds ahead of this are south-southwesterly with gusts up to 30 mph at times. Along/west of this west-northwest flow is in place. The main wx threats for the short term period will be the chances for strong to severe storms each day, with the focus for late afternoon/evening development. As mentioned, there is currently a surface low/trough that has just moved east of the Colorado border. There is a front attached to this that stretches south into southwest Kansas. Aloft, the RAP40 500mb analysis is showing a shortwave over southeast Colorado that will lift into Kansas and interact with the surface features this afternoon and tonight. From the latest CAMs(HRRR, RAP and NamNest) the latest HRRR is the most probable at this time showing convection starting along the trough. With convection already cropping up around/in the CWA, SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to cover expected convection through 03z Friday. All threats on the table with decent instability and high PW values, especially ahead of the boundary/trough. Winds around 60 mph, hail 1-2 inches w/ parameters suggesting a tornado or even landspout possible along the boundary. The HRRR does show this activity pushing east by 03z-04z Friday with scattered convection thereafter. Going into Friday, similar situation to today. High pressure is slowly settling east of region through Friday night. Looking at a N/NE flow into the area through the period. A trough moves off the Front Range as a front, settling south of the area by 12z Saturday. It will be this front interacting with a another shortwave to trigger another round storms. Afternoon and evening setup for these. SPC still favors a Slight Risk for severe storms for much of the CWA with hail and wind threats once again. PW values do shift east through the period, but at least 0.80" in the west, up to 1-1.20" east, so some heavy threat is possible. For Saturday, slightly cooler air will be present over much of the area through the day. The focus for strong to severe storms will be along/south of Hwy 40 closest to the previous front that remains over southern KS through the day. SPC carries a Marginal Risk for severe storm potential there with wind and hail threats. There will be chances north of Hwy 40, but a better stable airmass resides lowering the severe threat. For temps, highs on Friday will be ranging in upper 80s into the mid 90s. Going into Saturday, a range of 80s is expected with warmest locales along/south of I-70. Lows tonight will range mainly in the 60s, with areas east of Highway 83 around 70F. For Friday night, upper 50s west to the upper 60s east will give way to upper 50s to lower 60s for Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 From the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF, amplified 500mb ridge will persist over the central Plains for Sunday and Monday, before the ridge flattens to zonal flow and shifts slightly eastward from Tuesday onward. There will be several shortwaves that traverse the northern periphery of the ridge each day. At the surface, the focus will be on a couple lows and their associated fronts that move through the region. The first system starts off a trough over the eastern slopes of the Rockies on Sunday, with a very slow shift south and east into Monday, settling south of the CWA for the Tue-Wed timeframe. A quicker system for the end of the week will push through the area, aided by a digging ridge from the north. As a result, each day the passage of the aforementioned shortwaves will interact the surface front/low, creating rw/trw. For Sun-Mon, while some initiation is expected for the late afternoon hours each day, the best chances(30-40%) will occur during the evening, especially north of the Interstate. These areas will be closest to the system as it slowly moves into the CWA. Better moisture feed and instability is expected for Tue-Wed as the boundary sets up along/south of the area, opening the area up to more of an easterly fetch for better low level moisture/instability and thus better storms chances(40-60%). High PW values around 1-2" are expected each day, with high numbers in the east, combined with daytime heating, will create as least the chances for storms producing heavy rainfall. But strong to severe storms are possible as well. For Thu-Fri, this will envelope the arrival of the second boundary albeit a bit weak. There still be be chances for storms like mentioned above, but lower chances of coverage area-wide(30-40%). For temps, daytime highs each period will continue at above normal levels. On Sunday, 80s area-wide. 90s will persist each day next week except for Monday where a range from the mid 90s to lower 100s are expected. Hottest areas will be along and east of Highway 25. With a return to 100+ degree heat, heat indices will be around 100 in areas along/east of Highway 83. This will have to be watched for a potential Heat Advisory. Overnight lows will range in the 60s. A few spots east on Monday night could only drop to the 70F mark. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1030 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. 10-20 knot south winds are anticipated to become light and variable overnight. Winds will shift to the N and increase to ~15 knots within a few hours after sunrise (~13-14Z).. becoming light and variable once again during the early-mid afternoon. While a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out at either terminal this evening (and again on Friday).. confidence in thunderstorm development, location and coverage is low enough to preclude explicit mention at this time. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Vincent SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...Vincent