226
FXUS63 KGLD 221926
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
126 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s are forecast for
  eastern Colorado by Monday morning, potentially allowing for
  some patches of frost. There is a concern for fog formation
  Monday morning, too.

- Near average temperatures and dry conditions forecast for the
  upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Current observations show the elongated upper low over the area as
satellite shows clouds swirling over the area. The precipitation has
largely moved out of the area, but could see a few additional
showers in Eastern Colorado before the afternoon ends. Otherwise,
temperatures are warming to the mid to upper 50`s with a few breaks
in the cloud cover.

This evening and through the night, the upper low is forecast to
continue to shift further east and help bring in drier air in the
mid-levels which will clear the cloud cover out across the area.
While the skies are clearing, the surface winds are forecast to
become light as the pressure gradient weakens heavily. With the
clear skies and light winds, lows are forecast to drop into the
upper 30`s and 40`s, near the dewpoints. There is still a very low
chance for patches of frost in Eastern Colorado as temps drop into
the 30`s. However, the recent rains are forecast to keep dewpoints a
bit higher in the mid to upper 30`s, which will limit the chance for
temps to drop to or below 36. If the winds are a bit higher than
forecast, there is a chance that drier air can mix in and help lower
temps to the mid 30`s.

Tomorrow, a sunny day is forecast with dry air across the area. With
the clear skies and relatively light winds, temperatures should be
fairly warm in the mid to upper 70`s.

Tomorrow evening, another shortwave is forecast to move through the
Plains from the north and help bring some mid-level moisture and
forcing. However, the dry air near the surface is forecast to limit
the area to just an increase in cloud coverage and maybe some virga.
Lows are forecast to be near 50 with the increase in cloud
cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF both show dry weather is on tap
for the area for the entire extended period. Amplified 500mb ridge
will work off the eastern Rockies and move slowly through the
central Plains. For the second half of next week, the two models do
differ on the placement of this ridge. There is a cutoff system that
sets up over the lower Mississippi River Valley/southern Plains.
This system does meander and retrograde some late in the week. The
ECMWF shows the best potential for some increased moisture/clouds to
work towards the eastern CWA, but the overall trend keeps this east
of the area.

There is southerly flow at the surface for much of the extended,
which will aid in keeping low level moisture/slightly higher dewpts
at least into the eastern portion of the CWA. The result will still
keep the area dry with the upper ridge in place w/ near to above
normal temperatures for much of the extended.

For temps, highs in the 70s on Tuesday will shift slightly higher
with a range from the upper 70s to lower 80s for Wednesday through
next Saturday, then back to mainly 70s for next Sunday. Overnight
lows will range in the 40s from Tuesday night through Thursday
night. For Friday night onward, a mix of 40s and 50s is expected
with warmest areas mainly along/east of Highway 25.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected through the
period, though GLD may see some 2500-3000ft ceilings for the
first hour or two of the period. Winds are forecast to remain
from the north until around sunset, when winds will then shift
to out of the southwest at 5 kts or less. There is a low chance
for fog as temps lower to near dewpoints overnight, but the
westerly component of the winds should hinder fog development.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...KAK