Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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096 FXUS63 KGLD 202322 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 522 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will develop over majority of the Tri-State area this weekend. Both severe weather and flooding chances are very low (<5%). - Low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s are forecast for eastern Colorado by Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 218 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Current observations continue to show some streaks of mid-level moisture streaming from the southwest with storms developing in Southwestern Kansas. The Tri-State area is more in a dry streak which is keeping cloud cover and precip chances low. There should be some sprinkles and showers for Greeley, Wichita, Logan, and Gove counties, but not anything that should be impactful. This evening and tonight, skies should clear out with the moisture stream shifting more east/south. Winds should lower to around 10 mph. Even with the clearing skies and lowering winds, lows are forecast to remain fairly warm in the 50`s and 60`s as the southeasterly flow across a majority of the area has brough dewpoints in the 50`s and 60`s to the area. Tomorrow, the upper low currently near the CA/NV border is forecast to shift east to near the Four Corners region during the day. This will help push a surface cold front through the area during the morning. With the frontal passage, winds will strengthen to 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph and bring in some cooler and drier air to the area. Meanwhile, additional mid-level moisture is forecast to stream in from the northwest and help saturate the air column. The issue is that by the time the air saturates, the front is forecast to be in the southern part of the area. This will limit the better rainfall to the far southern portions of the area. So for most of the area, temperatures would likely peak around the noon hour, and then remain steady or cool as cloud cover increase and colder air advects in from the north. Rain looks to be limited through the afternoon except for far southern portions of the area. For the evening and overnight hours, the upper low is forecast to begin swinging through the region. This will provide some upper level support for showers and storms to develop along the higher terrain in Eastern Colorado. Showers and storms should then move through across the area with the saturated air unless the higher pressure can move in quickly and undercut storms. Once this line moves through the area, precipitation chances and amounts are forecast to drop off as subsidence begins to take over and drier air is forecast to move in the mid-levels. Sunday, a dreary day is forecast as the lower levels remain saturated and allow for fog and mist to develop. With the cooler air and persistent cloud cover, highs are forecast to only be a few degrees warmer than the lows in the 50`s. Temperatures may end up being dictated by how low/high the dewpoints are. Winds are forecast to slowly lower through the day as the higher pressure moves over the area. The evening and overnight hours are forecast to see skies slowly clear as the upper low pushes east of the area and drier air moves in. This could cause a potential issues where parts of Eastern Colorado could hit 36 degree or less for the first time this season. Looks to be dependent on how low the dewpoints will get with clear skies and light winds. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1255 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 The latest extended guidance from the GFS/ECMWF do start off the period on Monday consistent showing a 500mb shortwave trough sliding southeast through the central Rockies. The models then do break off as to the evolution of the system as it slides to our S/SW. The GFS carries the system through the Kansas area as an open wave Monday night into Tuesday morning, followed by amplified ridging coming eastward through the Rockies. This will provide the CWA with mainly dry conditions for most of Tuesday onward. The current ECMWF however allows the shortwave to move slower into Tuesday, forming a cutoff low over northern Texas then lifting northeast towards the southern Kansas border late in the week. The latest NBM guidance does take into account both models initially as the trough approaches the CO/KS border Monday night with a 15-30% chance for precip. Highest pops closest to the Colorado tapering off into the central CWA. It does look like the consensus is for the cutoff system to occur then slide south of the CWA Tue-Tue night, keeping a 15-20% chance over S/SW zones into Tuesday night. This does follow previous runs yesterday at this time, so will stick with this consistency for now. The bulk of the QPF will stay south of the area closest to the formed cutoff low. Late Thursday into Friday as the system lifts northeast, the northern periphery of the system could bring enough moisture into eastern zones that could trigger a few rw/trw(15-20%). For temps, upper 60s to lower 70s expected for highs Monday and Tuesday due to expected clouds/rain, will give way to mid 70s Wednesday, trending warmer to the upper 70s and lower 80s for most for next Thursday and Friday as the aforementioned upper ridge works east off the Rockies and southerly surface flow persists area-wide these days. Lows in the 40s Monday night will trend warmer as well with upper 40s west into the mid 50s east for the end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 520 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Gusty south to southwest winds will continue through tonight. A cold front will shift winds to the northwest then northeast early Saturday morning, gusty through the afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 323 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 The forecast continues to call for precipitation this weekend with the low levels becoming saturated through low level moisture advection from the southeast and mid-level advection from the southwest. However, forecast amounts continue to trend down as the best forcing does not appear to line up with when the air is most saturated. The front is forecast to move through early Saturday before the air can saturate. The best chance for rain during the day Saturday is for southern parts of the area as the front passes. Rainfall amounts and chances will be better if the front stalls in the southern portion of the area. The next good chance for rain is overnight Saturday into Sunday as the upper low swings through and brings a chance for showers and storms off the higher terrain in Eastern Colorado. However, a mid-level dryslot may interfere with this round and weaken chances. Amounts around a quarter of an inch or less are suggested with this kind of a setup for the whole event. If the forcing and moisture align better, than amounts of one to two inches become more likely, especially if the front stays over southern parts of the area. Flooding looks to be possible in scenarios where the front over performs and produces a couple of inches early, mainly from Wallace, KS to Norton, KS and south. Overall chance is around 5 to 10%. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...024 HYDROLOGY...KAK