381
FXUS63 KGLD 301132
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
532 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple of rounds of storms may impact the Tri-State area
  today and bring additional chances for severe weather and
  flooding. Two rounds of storms are possible out of Eastern
  Colorado while there is a lower chance round that could form
  in NW Kansas and parts of SW Nebraska. Storms are forecast to
  move through this afternoon and evening.

- Additional severe storm chances and flooding are forecast for
  Friday and Saturday. Storms are forecast to form in the
  afternoon and evening hours in and near Eastern Colorado and
  move east.

- A bit drier with less shower/thunderstorm coverage Sunday
  through Wednesday with afternoon temperatures well into the
  80s. Lower to middle 90s are forecast Sunday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

For the end of the work week, active weather and daily chances for
severe storms remain in the forecast. The area is forecast to remain
under the influence of a broad trough across the Northern CONUS,
with shortwaves moving through the zonal flow over the area.

The showers and storms from the overnight hours continue to move off
to the east and should be clearing the area by 5-6am CT. There could
be some patches of fog, mainly near the Colorado border where skies
are forecast to clear and relative humidity in the lowest 1km
remains around 80-100%. Through the morning, skies should clear
across a majority of the area with the warming temperatures and the
current clusters moving off to the east. As long as skies are
sunny or partly cloudy, highs should reach the low 80`s across
the majority of the area.

From the mid-afternoon on into the early overnight hours, the entire
area will have another chance for thunderstorms and severe weather.
The storms are forecast to have two initiation points. The first is
over Eastern Colorado, where the surface low and slightly higher
terrain should help spark storm development. This batch is forecast
to provide the main chance for severe weather as Eastern Colorado is
forecast to have the most sunshine during the day, allowing for more
instability to develop. The second batch (that has a lower chance of
occurring) is that there could be a convergence zone in the area
depending on how much of the area shifts to out of the north as the
surface low nears. If the winds for part of the area remain from the
south while the rest of the area shifts to out of the north, a
convergence zone will develop and serve as a focus for storms
development. These storms would then slowly move off to the south
and east.

For today`s hazards, the main severe hazards would be large hail up
to two inches and wind gusts up to 70 mph. However, most of the
severe weather would probably feature a lot of hail that is below
1.5 inches with effective shear forecast to be around 30-35 kts and
generally slow storm motions around or less than 30 kts. Wind gusts
would also likely stay below 60 mph except in the strongest storms
later in the evening. A concern that has increased is the potential
for flooding. With the area receiving another 1 to 4 inches this
past night, locales along and south of I-70 are starting to see an
increase in soil moisture. With the potential for slow moving
clusters later today, another couple of inches of rainfall could
fall and lead to some flooding. Will be monitoring closely. The
storms should pass by 3am local time with skies remain mostly cloud
and lows in the 50`s and low 60`s.

For Friday and Saturday, the overall patter remains the same with
the nearly zonal flow aloft, low pressure to the west and high
pressure to the east. The main difference between the two is that
higher pressure is forecast for Friday, with temperatures a little
lower in the 70`s instead of in the 80`s. Otherwise, in regard to
storms, both days are forecast to have storms develop along the
higher terrain in Eastern Colorado and move east into the rest of
the area. The difference between the two is that the environment is
a little less favorable Friday which should limit the coverage and
overall chances. In both cases hail to around 1.5 to 2 inches and
wind gusts up to 70 mph would be the main threat, but a tornado or
two and additional flooding concerns will also be in play.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

The long-term pattern looks to remain zonal with an upper-level low
pressure system moving along the U.S./Canada border, maybe in the
northern row of states. This would lead to diurnal pop-up showers
and storms, but nothing very organized. The CMC-NH is showing the
low pressure system moving over the Tri-State area and becoming
cutoff Wednesday and lasting into the weekend. This seems highly
unlikely (<5% chance of occurrence), but if this does occur we could
see persistent storms and showers until it moves out.

RH values look to lower into the teens in southwest on Sunday and
Tuesday afternoon. This does increase fire weather concerns, but
winds do not support critical fire weather.

Temperatures will be fairly warm with highs in the mid 80s to mid
90s. Low temperatures will remain in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 513 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast through the afternoon
hours. Towards the late afternoon hours and into the evening
hours, there are chances for thunderstorms. Based on the current
forecast, storms should move through around 01Z, but could begin
and form over the terminal as soon as 21Z. These storms could be
severe with large hail, wind gusts to 70 mph, and very heavy
rainfall. Later in the night, ceilings are forecast to lower
down to IFR levels around 09Z, but as soon as 4Z. Mist and fog
may also develop if outflow boundaries from nearby and earlier
storms don`t move through.

For KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the afternoon
hours. LLWS will remain for a few hours this morning with winds
a few hundred feet above the surface around 30-40kts. Around
00Z, thunderstorms may develop or move over the terminal and
could be severe with large hail, wind gusts to 70 mph, and very
heavy rainfall. Storms could develop as early as 21Z. Shortly
after the storms pass, ceilings are forecast to lower down to
IFR levels. The IFR ceilings will likely prevail through the
remainder of the period, and may be accompanied by some mist or
fog depending on if any outflows from storms linger in the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 513 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024

The flooding chance for parts of the area have increased today
with much of the area from Kit Carson [CO] county to Logan [KS]
county and south seeing a total of 2 to 5 inches across the past
two evenings. The main help in these areas is that they were
relatively dry before the storms moved through which has seemed
to help mitigate any potential flooding so far.

For today, we are watching for a couple of clusters to develop
in the area. Unfortunately, they are favoring the areas that
have seen the rainfall the past few days. These storms could
cluster and/or move slowly which would likely lead to another
few inches of rainfall. With soil saturation estimated to near
50% or more, flooding will become more likely, especially in an
instance where another quick 3+ inches falls.

Going into the weekend, the flooding threat continues though
Friday has a bit lower of a chance right now with the forecast
suggesting faster storms and lesser coverage. Saturday and
Sunday however have the chance to add more heavy rain to areas
that have already seen decent rain. Will need to see how much
the area gets today.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK
HYDROLOGY...KAK