062
FXUS63 KGLD 052318
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
518 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Relatively dry Wednesday and Thursday with only a slight
  chance for storms Thursday night. Temperatures will be hot
  today with highs in the 90`s.

- A return to a more active weather pattern Friday night through
  Monday night as weather systems move off the Colorado front
  range and into the Tri-State area each afternoon through
  overnight hours.

- Hot with highs in the 90s Friday then cooling closer to normal
  highs for early June in the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 158 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Across the region this afternoon, skies are sunny except for some
diurnal cumulus developing along/ahead of a weak surface trough that
currently sits along the KS/CO/NE border. Temperatures as of 100 PM
MDT are ranging in the 80s and 90s with a westerly flow, gusting up
to 20-30 mph at times.

Weather concerns in the short term period will focus on the near to
above normal temperatures through the end of the work week, along
with chances for precipitation, especially Friday when some strong
to severe storms are possible.

For the remainder of the afternoon hours through tonight, a surface
ridge transitioning through the region will keep the area precip-
free with above normal temps.

Going into Thursday, the aforementioned ridge continues to roll east
of the CWA through the day, allowing for easterly flow to transition
to more southerly by the late afternoon/evening hours. The change in
surface flow will funnel in increased moisture to southern/western
locales, aided by a low over New Mexico and a front extending from
it into the OK Panhandle. There will be an amplified ridge at 500mb
that will see a weak shortwave move through the region, triggering
some rw/trw. The position of the surface ridge will keep chances for
rw/trw in the south/southwest around 20-30%. Stability is low
keeping severe chances at bay. PW values increase from Thursday to
Thursday night from 0.80" to around 1.00". This could suggest some
locally heavy downpours possible.

For Friday and Friday night, surface high continues to push east as
the aforementioned low/front moves into/through the OK Panhandle
into the central Plains. With an inverted trough sitting around the
CWA vicinity, SPC currently has a Marginal Risk for severe storms
for all but our far E/NE zones.

Model soundings does suggest some drier air coming into western CWA
behind the inverted trough, but along/ahead of it, SBCape/MLCape/
DCape values are reaching into the 1500-1800 j/kg range around 00z
Saturday, down from a peak during the afternoon in the 2000-2500
j/kg for most. DCape around 1000-1200 j/kg. Hail and wind threats
will be present if any strong do get going. In addition, PW values
in the 1-1.50" range could also lead to locally heavy rainfall/
flooding issues and will have to be monitored.

The activity does lift/clear from west to east overnight, with some
lingering convection possible east going into Saturday morning.

For temps, highs on Thursday will be slightly cooler than today in
the mid 80s, but on Friday hotter conditions return with lower to
mid 90s expected. These numbers are still below any records for the
date. Overnight lows tonight in the lower 50s west to near 60F east.
for Thursday and Friday nights, mainly upper 50s with some areas
east into the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

From the latest GFS/ECMWF, the overall upper level pattern for the
extended period from Saturday onward will consist of persistent W/NW
flow aloft due to a meandering upper ridge in the Rockies. Several
shortwaves will impact the CWA as they move off the Rockies on the
east side of the upper ridge.

At the surface:

Saturday through Saturday night, the position of the strong ridge
nosing south from the northern Plains will play a key role to the
areal coverage of expected QPF. There are differences from the GFS
versus the ECMWF with the GFS more broadly spaced as it comes into
contact with a surface low/front over southern KS/OK Panhandle. With
the inconsistency of the two models, have combined them for coverage
purposes which will initially start rw/trw chances mainly along/west
of Highway 27 during the afternoon and overspread the CWA by the
evening hours, slowly dissipating overnight.

Sunday and Sunday night, the E/SE flow on Saturday shifts to more
southerly as the ridge pushes east of the area. This will push best
chances for rw/trw into the western CWA, especially northeast
Colorado, as those locales will be closest to a lee-side
trough/upper level shortwave over the central Colorado area. The
chances for convection will persist over the 24 hour period.

Monday through Tuesday night, persistent southerly flow initially on
Monday will keep increased warmth area-wide, but storm chances will
persist as well. The aforementioned lee-side trough does push east
going into Tuesday, allowing for an increased areal coverage of
potential storms versus hwy and west for Sun-Mon.

Wednesday, warmest day of the extended period as upper/surface
ridging becoming more prominent over the area. Some instability in
far western zones may allow for rw/trw to develop, but chances are
low at this time.

Overall, PW values will reach around an inch for much of the
extended period, bringing along the chances for some locally heavy
rainfall to portions of the CWA. This will have to be monitored,
especially in the western CWA where current pops chances are
highest/persistent.

For temps, looking for daytime highs this weekend to range in the
upper 70s to the mid 80s for Saturday, and for Sunday, upper 70s to
around 80F. Going into next week, mid to upper 70s for Monday,
increasing to the lower to mid 80s for Tuesday, with mid to upper
80s for next Wednesday. Overnight lows will range in the 50s for
most nights. Some 60s are possible for areas along and east of
Highway 83 for next Tuesday/Wednesday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 516 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. High pressure will build over the area behind a cold
front tonight and Thursday, resulting in light winds and mostly
clear skies.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...024