Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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817 FXUS63 KGRB 160902 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 402 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Summer-like temperatures continue through Thursday with highs in the 80s. Temperatures to stay in the 70s near Lake Michigan. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected next weekend. - Other than a small chance (15 to 20%) of a thunderstorm over far north-central WI today, the next chances for rain arrive late this week and carry into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Tuesday Fog this morning and the potential for a few showers and storms to develop today in far north-central WI are the main highlights for this forecast period. Additionally, the prevailing warm air mass will keep temperatures above normal through Tuesday. This morning`s satellite imagery highlighted areas of radiation fog along the lakeshore counties, causing low visibilities of 1/4 to 1/2 mile. Model guidance indicates the fog sticking around in these areas through early this morning, and lifting soon after sunrise. Decided to issue a Special Weather Statement for the lakeshore counties until 8 AM to account for the potentially hazardous driving conditions. Otherwise, dry conditions under mostly clear skies prevailed across the forecast area. Today...Dry air from nearby upper-level ridging to the east will keep the area precip-free for the day, with some high clouds passing overhead from the south. The only exception could be in far north- central WI, where diurnal cu is expected to develop in an area of 700 to 1200 J/kg of CAPE, potentially generating a few showers and storms. Given the lack in upper-level forcing and light winds aloft, if any showers or storms develop, they would be short-lived and very isolated in coverage. Since the pattern is similar to yesterday, anticipate today`s high temps to be around the same values in the middle to upper 80s. However, it will not be as humid due to the departure of the lingering moisture from Francine. Tonight and Tuesday...The upper-level ridging to the east will continue to feed dry air over the area tonight, resulting in dry weather under some passing high clouds. Mild lows temps will continue with values ranging from the middle 50s to low 60s. The dry and warm weather continues on Tuesday as the upper-level ridge to the east is gradually replaced with an amplifying ridge building over the Central US. Tuesday`s highs to range from the low to middle 80s. Long Term...Tuesday Night Through Sunday Seasonably warm and dry weather into late week, then it turns slightly cooler by this weekend. There will also be at least small chances for some rain late this week into the weekend. Pattern this week will be amplified, yet changeable. One of the anchors in the pattern will be the system currently organizing off the South Carolina coast. This may make landfall in the next 24 hrs as a tropical storm before meandering over the southeast CONUS through midweek then lifting toward the Mid Atlantic at the end of the week. Meanwhile, heights will remain high over the Great Lakes to the north of this system, keeping our area dry. Out west over western North America, deep trough keeps reloading and now it appears that leading upper low that moves to south central Canada by Thursday has trended stronger. Main impact for weather in northeast WI is as this low moves east, heights will fall quicker so that rain chances will arrive from the west late Thursday or Friday. Models are showing tendency for QPF to fade from west to east over the western Great Lakes, so could be situation where western to central WI sees some rain while eastern WI stays dry. Kind of early for those details though. By next weekend, there will be opportunities for some showers all areas, though there is disagreement on how frequent and widespread these will be. At this point, sure doesn`t look like anything significant enough to put dent into what has now turned into a pretty dry 30 day stretch over much of our area. Temps Wednesday through Friday will be seasonably warm, though not hot, as highs persist in the lower to perhaps mid 80s (70s lakeside) while lows drop mainly into the 50s. Temps this weekend will drop into mainly the mid to upper 70s, with current forecast only showing upper 60s over the far north on Sunday. Overall, hazardous weather looks minimal with only a small chance for thunder on Friday and winds/waves on the waters staying on the light side. Tuesday night and Wednesday night will have a good chance for patchy fog which will lead to localized reduced visibility in the pre-dawn hours. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1059 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The main aviation impact for the TAF period will be fog tonight, mainly along the lakeshore areas next to Lake Michigan. The fog may impact MTW at times, but should remain out of GRB, ATW, and areas further inland. outside of the fog, clear skies and quiet conditions are expected across the region. Once fog dissipates in the morning, good flying conditions are expected for Monday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kruk/JLA AVIATION.......Uhlmann