Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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256 FXUS63 KGRR 222330 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 730 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Risk for storms Friday Aftn/Eve && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 - Risk for storms Friday Aftn/Eve Quiet weather through Thursday night...then a cold front will be pushing through the CWA Friday evening. Scattered showers/storms will be developing along and ahead of this feature as it moves in. Models do varying with how much surface based instability will develop. The GFS/Nam have been featuring the most with values topping 1000 J/kg into the evening, while the ECMWF and Canadian have kept values mostly under 500 J/kg and have the instability focused over southwest parts of the CWA. The winds at 500 mb are not projected to be very strong, under 30 knots. There will be a low level jet in that area, 30 to 35 knots that will likely enhance the potential for storms. With lower values of deep layer shear, any storms that develop will likely be pulse in nature. Overall though with several models struggling to develop any instability, confidence on their occurrence is low. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 730 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Very quiet weather expected for the terminals for the next 24 hours. Somewhat gusty winds will remain up for an hour or two at inland sites this evening. These will diminish quickly after sunset, and stay from the SW. Skies will remain mostly clear with diurnal clouds dissipating, and just some high cirrus across the south. Just a little bit of high clouds possible initially on Thursday morning, with a few cumulus development possible in the afternoon. Winds will become a little gusty in the afternoon at KLAN and KGRR away from the lake, and the better winds further north. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Waves are still near or above 4 feet this afternoon but winds are slowly decreasing and only a few gusts over 25 knots are expected for the rest of the afternoon. Winds and waves will be decreasing into Thursday and Friday then increasing on Saturday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ037- 043-050-056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJS/Ostuno AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...Ostuno