477
FXUS63 KGRR 101715
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
115 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild weather through Tuesday

- Chance of rain Tuesday night and Thursday

- Summer-like temperatures

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1057 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Post-frontal strato-cumulus clouds are exiting far southern
sections of the area at this time. Sunny skies and somewhat breezy
conditions prevailing for the rest of the day with very
comfortable conditions. Highs 65 to 70 with dew points in the
30s/40s, although a UV Index in the very high category.

Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through the evening.
Northerly winds of 15 to 25 mph will create hazardous waves of 3
to 6 feet through this evening. The north side of north piers are
particularly dangerous places to swim today. This includes North
Beach at South Haven, Holland State Park, Muskegon State Park, Mears
State Park in Pentwater, and Stearns Park in Ludington.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

- Dry and mild weather through Tuesday

Some clouds are moving through the area this morning in the wake of
a cold front to our south, and with a trough axis working through
the area this morning. The trough axis extends to a fairly potent
upper wave dropping south through Wisconsin this morning evident on
water vapor imagery. This wave will have little consequence as it
passes through this morning, as there is not really much moisture
other than the shallow low clouds moving through. It is not enough
to support any precipitation for our area.

Another wave dropping over the Eastern U.P. will cross Lower
Michigan early this afternoon. By then, even drier air will be in
place with the system this morning, sweeping any residual moisture
out of the area.

Once the wave early this afternoon moves through, we will see the
area of high pressure at the sfc and aloft build over the area. This
subsidence will ensure dry conditions, and increasingly warmer air
after a slightly cooler day today compared to yesterday.

- Chance of rain Tuesday night and Thursday

A short wave will move across the state Tuesday night and bring a
low chance of shower mainly to the northern cwa. There isn`t much
moisture return ahead of the system and so we really don`t expected
much in the way of precipitation.

The higher chance of rain will come Thursday. Another cold front
will try to move south. Juicy air ahead of the front with SBCAPE
1500-2k j/kg coupled with 40-45kts bulk shear could result in some
stronger storms Thursday afternoon.

- Summer-like temperatures

A large ridge is forecast to develop over the MS Valley over the
weekend. As heights rise aloft, so will surface temperatures. Highs
in the lower 80s Wednesday will increase to mid to upper 80s
Thursday, upper 80s Sunday and around 90 next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR weather prevailing the next 24 hours with only a few cumulus
clouds around 5000 ft this afternoon then high level cirrus
arriving from the west on Tuesday. Gusty northerly winds 10 to 20
kts this afternoon diminishing to less than 10 kts after sunset;
becoming southerly around 5 kts on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

We have only made some small tweaks to the going headlines for
today. That is to match up the time of the Small Craft Advisory and
Beach Hazards for the Northern zones.

We have a decent gradient in place this morning in the wake of the
weak cold front that passed through the area yesterday. This will
continue this morning, before transitioning to a more mesoscale
effect this afternoon. As mentioned in the previous discussion, this
will be a common wind/wave event late in the day due to the high
moving in, and the land/lake pressure interface.

The bottom line is that winds will hold up through this evening
across the southern zones, and allow for waves to remain hazardous
through dark.

After this event finishes up, there looks to be a break in the
hazardous marine conditions for boats and swimmers for Tuesday and
Wednesday, before winds and waves increase with the next noteworthy
system that will affect the area.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ037-
     043-050.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ056-
     064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>846.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ847>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Meade
DISCUSSION...NJJ/04
AVIATION...Meade
MARINE...NJJ