910
FXUS63 KGRR 100705
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
304 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild weather through Tuesday

- Chance of rain Tuesday night and Thursday

- Summer-like temperatures

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

- Dry and mild weather through Tuesday

Some clouds are moving through the area this morning in the wake of
a cold front to our south, and with a trough axis working through
the area this morning. The trough axis extends to a fairly potent
upper wave dropping south through Wisconsin this morning evident on
water vapor imagery. This wave will have little consequence as it
passes through this morning, as there is not really much moisture
other than the shallow low clouds moving through. It is not enough
to support any precipitation for our area.

Another wave dropping over the Eastern U.P. will cross Lower
Michigan early this afternoon. By then, even drier air will be in
place with the system this morning, sweeping any residual moisture
out of the area.

Once the wave early this afternoon moves through, we will see the
area of high pressure at the sfc and aloft build over the area. This
subsidence will ensure dry conditions, and increasingly warmer air
after a slightly cooler day today compared to yesterday.

- Chance of rain Tuesday night and Thursday

A short wave will move across the state Tuesday night and bring a
low chance of shower mainly to the northern cwa. There isn`t much
moisture return ahead of the system and so we really don`t expected
much in the way of precipitation.

The higher chance of rain will come Thursday. Another cold front
will try to move south. Juicy air ahead of the front with SBCAPE
1500-2k j/kg coupled with 40-45kts bulk shear could result in some
stronger storms Thursday afternoon.

- Summer-like temperatures

A large ridge is forecast to develop over the MS Valley over the
weekend. As heights rise aloft, so will surface temperatures. Highs
in the lower 80s Wednesday will increase to mid to upper 80s
Thursday, upper 80s Sunday and around 90 next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 119 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

MVFR stratocu is moving south across central Lower following a
cold front that passed through earlier. MVFR cigs will last
several hours before scattering out later this morning. The rest
of the period will be VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

We have only made some small tweaks to the going headlines for
today. That is to match up the time of the Small Craft Advisory and
Beach Hazards for the Northern zones.

We have a decent gradient in place this morning in the wake of the
weak cold front that passed through the area yesterday. This will
continue this morning, before transitioning to a more mesoscale
effect this afternoon. As mentioned in the previous discussion, this
will be a common wind/wave event late in the day due to the high
moving in, and the land/lake pressure interface.

The bottom line is that winds will hold up through this evening
across the southern zones, and allow for waves to remain hazardous
through dark.

After this event finishes up, there looks to be a break in the
hazardous marine conditions for boats and swimmers for Tuesday and
Wednesday, before winds and waves increase with the next noteworthy
system that will affect the area.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ037-043-050.
     Beach Hazards Statement through 11 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ056-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     LMZ844>846.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ847>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NJJ/04
AVIATION...04
MARINE...NJJ