779
FXUS63 KGRR 152238
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
638 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 80s and Likely Dry All Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

- Highs in the 80s and Likely Dry All Week

Dry conditions are favored to continue. Upper ridging across the
Great Lakes and eastern Canada is not anticipated to relent anytime
soon. The ridging is anomalously strong, as shown by the ECE
ensemble mean 500 mb heights reaching almost 3 standard deviations
above normal across eastern Canada by late this week. Longwave
troughing across the western U.S. is going to have a tough time
making forward progress with such a strong ridge in place. Any
tropical activity that develops across the western Atlantic also
would likely be steered away from the region. A minority of ensemble
members (mainly from the GEFS) show rain associated with the
remnants of whatever becomes of the National Hurricane Center`s
"Invest 95L" reaching eastern Lower MI by mid week. Most ensemble
members overall do not depict this outcome, and given the upper
pattern in place we are likely to stay dry, aside from some cloud
cover from this system potentially by Wednesday or Thursday.

Warmer than normal temperatures will continue unabated this week,
with 80 or warmer likely each day for almost all areas. Normal highs
are in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

High confidence in VFR at all terminals over the TAF window. High
pressure will keep skies clear, with generally a light east-
southeast wind. The only exception is winds at MKG which will go
westerly for a time Monday afternoon due to a lake breeze,
remaining light even with the wind shift.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Waves of 1 foot or less are expected into much of this week given
mainly easterly flow. This will lead to pretty tranquil
conditions.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hoving
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Hoving