378
FXUS62 KGSP 152209
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
609 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will remain across the region through the
weekend. The high will linger over the region through much of next
week keeping temperatures above normal. Isolated diurnal ridgetop
showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through Monday.
Drier conditions are expected to return Tuesday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 605 PM: Isolated showers/storms still slowly evolving
over the SW NC mountains/foothills and even one stray cell in
Greenville County. Some of this activity should dissipate near
sunset, although new development is still possible thru the
evening. CAMs along with 18z synoptic models still produce some
response to a northward moving sfc boundary, possibly the sea
breeze front, late evening through very early morning. NAMNest
still proving overdone so not buying its depiction, but with
lapse rates remaining favorable aloft and no notable suppressing
feature, it still looks like some weak convection still could
bubble along the boundary thru much of the night, particularly
with flow turning SE into the Escarpment. Revised extent of
mostly isolated shower/tstm mention.

Looks to become more convectively active across the mtns Sunday as
se/ly BL flow develops and upslope enhancement helps produce pulse
type storms. Dont anticipate severe level storms as the environ
remain neg forced, but a couple cells could reach SPS strength
as sbCAPE increases to arnd 1200 J/kg. Lows tonight will remain
abv normal with increasing in cloud cover late, while highs Sun
return to near normal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Saturday: An upper level anticyclone will be in
place across the region through the short range period. On Sunday
night and Monday, there will enough moisture and upslope flow to
create showers and thunderstorms in the mountains. However, as the
anticyclone strengthens, a strong drying trend is expected with
Tuesday being an entirely dry day. Highs each day will be 2-3
degrees above climo, generally upper 80s in the Piedmont and mid 80s
in the mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday: The strong upper anticyclone will settle
over the mid-Atlantic region for the middle to end of next week.
This will lead to dry conditions and temperatures just a few degrees
above climo. There may be an increase in moisture toward the week of
the week leading to a return to a normal diurnal chance of showers
and storms. Overall, it will be a pretty quiet period.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A northward moving bndry will likely increase
cloud cover overnight and produce MVFR CIGS at KAVL and possibly
across the Upstate terminals. These restrictions will be relatively
short lived and by 12z all sites shud be VFR. KHKY could also see
MVFR CIGs late period as the bndry remains across that area. Precip
chances will be sct/isol and confidence is low on any terminal
receiving rain or thunder. High pressure centers off the Atl coast
overnight, which will allow for e/ly to se/ly winds all sites thru
the daytime period.

Outlook: More moist, SLY flow returns by early next week and will
likely bring some increase in shower and thunderstorm activity each
day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SCW
NEAR TERM...SBK/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...SBK