906
FXUS62 KGSP 151553
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1153 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will remain across the region through the
weekend. The high will linger over the region through much of next
week keeping temperatures above normal. Isolated diurnal ridgetop
showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through Monday.
Drier conditions are expected to return Tuesday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Noon Update...Cumulus field across the mtns is becoming more
vertically enhance. However, llvl instability is running into warm
mlvls and meager lapse rates with no good triggering. Latest RAP
soundings suggest a few general tstms and showers developing arnd
19z as LFC parcels possibly break cap.

Otherwise, broad upper ridging will continue to spread further
east and over our area thru the period. By the end of the period
early Sunday, the ridge axis will be centered just to our west
with the ridge dominating much of the CONUS. At the sfc, broad
Canadian high pressure will continue to slide SE and over the
Great Lakes today. By the end of the period, the high will be
centered just west of New England with low-lvl flow going from
NELY to more ELY over our area. This could initiate some upslope
showers and a few thunderstorms across the escarpment by mid-aftn
today, but overall the atmosphere will remain fairly suppressed
with another day of weak mid and upper-lvl lapse rates. The NELY
wind component will help to moderate temperatures somewhat, but
with the upper ridge building, highs will still top out about a
category above normal for mid-June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Saturday: An upper level anticyclone will build
over the Carolinas Sunday, continuing to strengthen and drift toward
the northeast Monday. This ridging will help keep mid-level lapse
rates pretty weak and result in a generally suppressive environment
for convection. With that said, E/SELY flow around the associated
sfc high will bring some Atlantic moisture into the forecast area,
and will result in 1500 J/kg (with pockets of up to 2000 J/kg of
sbCAPE Sunday aftn. The flow will also have a little upslope to
help trigger some convection. Will keep 20-45% PoPs. Severe threat
will remain low, thanks to weak shear and modest CAPE. Monday is
trending a little drier, as ridging weakens lapse rates further and
a pocket of lower PWATs rotate in around the anticyclone atop the
forecast area. The NBM still has rather robust PoPs considering
the pattern, so have undercut that and confine PoPs mainly to
the mountains. Again, severe threat will be low. The E/SELY flow
will support potential stratus/stratocu development overnight both
Saturday night and Sunday night, and these clouds should scatter
out by early aftn, but may help keep max temps down a tad. Still,
above normal lows and near to slightly above normal highs expected
thru the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 AM EDT Saturday: A large upper level anticyclone will
set up across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, with an inverted
ridge axis extending SW into the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and
Wednesday. This setup will likely keep the forecast area capped
from deep convection both days. Temps will continue to be slightly
above normal.

An inverted upper trough will develop east of FL and drift
westward and strengthen as it enters the eastern Gulf. This may
weaken the ridge atop the forecast area enough to allow a return
of some isolated mountaintop convection Thursday and Friday. But
overall, dry wx is expected to continue with temps remaining
above normal. The easterly flow off the Atlantic will have some
moderating effect on the heat and humidity across the region,
with the more oppressive heat expected to be north of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: expect VFR conditions to continue thru the
12z taf period at all terminals. Mostly clear skies and light to
calm winds will continue thru late the morning. Today should be
another mostly dry day, with some isolated to sct showers and maybe
a few thunderstorms popping up later in the day, but more than likely
they won`t impact any taf sites. Otherwise, another round of cumulus
and some higher cirrus is expected by the afternoon. Winds will pick
up modestly from the NE by late morning and eventually veer to more
ELY later tonight. At KAVL, winds will remain light and VRB thru the
afternoon and eventually favor more of a SE direction this evening.

Outlook: weak high pressure will linger over the area into Sunday
with minimal chances for convection and associated flight restric-
tions. More moist, SLY flow returns by early next week and will
likely bring some increase in shower and thunderstorm activity
each day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JPT/SBK
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JPT