445
FXUS62 KGSP 141600
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1200 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will continue into the weekend as a hot upper level
ridge builds into our region from the west.  Isolated ridgetop
showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoons.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
early next week as a weak cold front approaches from the north.
The hottest days are expected to be today and Saturday, but heat
will continue into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Noon Update...No sigfnt changes needed since the last update.
Still expect isol showers and maybe a couple general
thunderstorms across the NC mtn ridges this afternoon.

Otherwise, broad upper trofing will translate east of the Great
Lakes today and center itself over New England by the end of the
period early Saturday. This will allow very broad upper ridging
to spread further eastward and into our area as the period ends.
At the sfc, we will remain under weak high pressure today as a
weak low just off the SE Coast becomes slightly more organized
and tracks further NE. The sfc high is expected to keep any deeper
moisture and gusty winds associated with this low just offshore.
Although the environment still appears fairly suppressed today,
we will likely get some amount of mid-lvl energy passing overhead
and possibly combining with a weak sfc boundary that drops thru
our area this aftn/evening. This has some of the CAMs producing
isolated to sct convection over the NC mtns and into the Foothills
and Piedmont later in the day. Most of the latest model profiles
continue to show poor lapse rates in the mid to upper levels,
however the drier air persisting in the low levels could increase
the downburst potential if storms can get going. The likelihood
of any storms becoming severe is certainly greater to our north,
however the current SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook does have a
Marginal Risk right up against our northern NC zones. Otherwise,
winds will remain light thru the day and favor a W to NW direction.
Temps will continue to climb today with highs expected to finally
surpass 90 degrees across most our lower terrain. Over the mtns,
highs should be in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 221 AM EDT Friday: Mostly quiet conditions will continue
on Saturday and Sunday as a deepening upper anticyclone drifts
across the Deep South and supports broad high pressure across the
Eastern Seaboard.  Forecast profiles depict 10-15 degree dewpoint
depressions each afternoon, as afternoon temps soar into the
upper 80s and deep mixing develops.  Isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms may develop over the ridgetops of the
NC mountains, but severe risk will be virtually nil with pitiful
lapse rates, virtually nonexistent shear, and only some 500-1000
J/kg sbCAPE even in the most unstable of profiles.  Still, some
thunder looks increasingly likely by Sunday, as the high drifts
offshore and an easterly Atlantic fetch sets up, moistening profiles
and allowing us to settle into an uneventful summer pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 234 AM EDT Friday: Little excitement is to be expected
in the extended, either.  As an upper anticyclone continues to
churn over the east coast through midweek, the surface high will
drift farther and farther offshore, enhancing SE low-level flow
and bringing ever more moisture into the Carolinas.  Unimpressive
diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances will slowly increase each
day through the workweek as dewpoint depressions become smaller.
Temperatures will remain elevated, reaching the upper 80s or even
lower 90s in some areas across the NC Piedmont each afternoon,
and falling into the upper 60s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conditions to continue thru the
12z taf period at all terminals. Mostly clear skies and light to
calm winds are expected thru most of the morning. Cumulus clouds
and some high cirrus are expected again this afternoon with a slight
chance for some convection over the higher terrain and into the
Foothills. With chances currently less than 25% in the vicinity of
KAVL and KHKY, I have no mention of convection in the tafs at this
time. Winds will eventually become W to NW again this afternoon,
but remain light (5 kts or less) thru the evening. They will veer
around to a more NLY direction towards the end of the period Sat
morning and remain light.

Outlook: Weak sfc high pressure will linger over the area into the
weekend, with minimal chances for convection and associated flight
restrictions. More moist, SLY flow returns early next week and will
likely bring some increase in shower and thunderstorm activity each
day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...JPT/SBK
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JPT