577
FXUS62 KGSP 141729
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
129 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry and weak cold front will track across the forecast area
overnight before a hot upper ridge builds into the region from the
west this weekend. The upper ridge will linger over the Southeast
through much of next week keeping the heat around. Isolated diurnal
ridgetop showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday,
with better chances across the mountains on Sunday and Monday. Drier
conditions are expected to return Tuesday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Current GOES-16 loop indicates deepening updrafts across the NC mtn
ridgetops, but not enuf to produce any precip. The upper vort lobe
crossing the area is weaker per the latest RAP compared to the
outlook yesterday and soundings show low-end sbCAPE as temps rise
abv normal levels conjoined with high sfc dewpts. Still expect some
showery development across the mtns this afternoon, but negative
large scale forcing assoc with deep subs and meager mlvl LRs will
curtail sigfnt tstm development, esp east where a downsloping
componenet helps dry out the sfc layer.

A weakly forced cold front will reach the NC mtns by midnight,
but not expecting much fanfare outside a increasing the chance
for sct showers as mlCIN increases. Expect the front to continue
pushing south of the FA Sat as stg hipres ridges in from the
north and northeast. This pattern will initiate a llvl e/ly
component which may develop upslope showers and couple general
tstms across the escarpment upslope regions by the afternoon.
Otherwise, Sat looks mostly dry with highs reaching arnd 90 F
east of the mtns and mid to upper 80s across the mtn valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday: Strong upper ridging will continue building
into the Southeast Saturday night, ending up centered over the
Carolinas Sunday into Monday night. At the sfc, high pressure will
gradually track eastward across the Northeast Saturday night before
pushing offshore into the western Atlantic on Sunday. The center of
the sfc high will linger in the western Atlantic while gradually
nudging eastward Sunday night into Monday night. The
southern/southwestern periphery of the sfc high will extend into the
Southeast through the period. Winds will gradually turn S/SE`ly on
Sunday, and will lingering through Monday, allowing for an influx of
Atlantic moisture. Thus, diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances are
expected to increase through the period. Have PoPs ranging from 25%-
40% across the mountains each afternoon. The severe threat looks to
remain low and mainly general thunderstorms are expected each day.
Lows each night will remain around 4-8 degrees above climo. Highs
will remain around 3-6 degrees above climo, with temps rebounding
into the upper 80s/lower 90s in the mountain valleys and east of the
mountains each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 234 AM EDT Friday: Little excitement is to be expected
in the extended, either.  As an upper anticyclone continues to
churn over the east coast through midweek, the surface high will
drift farther and farther offshore, enhancing SE low-level flow
and bringing ever more moisture into the Carolinas.  Unimpressive
diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances will slowly increase each
day through the workweek as dewpoint depressions become smaller.
Temperatures will remain elevated, reaching the upper 80s or even
lower 90s in some areas across the NC Piedmont each afternoon,
and falling into the upper 60s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conds across all TAF sites thru
the period. High pressure will continue to work in from the
northwest this afternoon and build east thru Sat. This will keep
winds aligned generally w/ly to nw/ly this evening with a shift
before daybreak to ne/ly to se/ly as ridging commences down the east
coast. Precip chances are confined to the mtns but remain too small
for a TAF mention. No great fog threat overnight as well, but the
mtn valleys have a some chance. Confidence in fog coverage is too
low to include a restriction at KAVL, however.

Outlook: Weak sfc high pressure will linger over the area into the
weekend, with minimal chances for convection and associated flight
restrictions. More moist, SLY flow returns early next week and will
likely bring some increase in shower and thunderstorm activity each
day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...SBK