027
FXUS62 KGSP 190741
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
341 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure atop the region will suppress any storms from
developing this week until moisture returns on Saturday. A heat
wave gets underway on Friday and remains hot through the weekend.
A weak cold front approaches from the north early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3:25 AM EDT Wednesday: Sct stratocu in the 4000 to 5000 ft
range has been spreading over our area the past few hrs, as sct
to bkn high cirrus continue to stream overhead from the north and
west. Winds remain light to calm across the CWA with some patchy
fog being reported in the fog-prone mtn valleys. This includes the
AVL airport where they are currently reporting 3 sm visibility
and 100 ft ceilings. Lows should be a bit cooler this morning
compared to the past few mornings, but still remain near clima-
tology for mid-June.

Otherwise, broad upper ridging will remain centered over the
mid-Atlantic states and help keep the atmosphere suppressed
thru the near-term period. At the sfc, sprawling high pressure
will continue to dominate much of the Atlantic basin and keep
relatively dry, ELY low-level flow over the Carolinas today.
This will help support a relatively low theta-E airmass beneath
warm mid-level temps. Diurnal instability should be very limited
thru the period, with no significant amounts of sfc-based CAPE
expected to materialize over our area. Thus, PoPs remain below
10% across our CWA thru the period. Highs today should be similar
to yesterday (Tuesday) and very close to climatology.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1205 AM EDT Wednesday: The cwfa is still expecting to be
within the southern periphery of strong 597 dm ridge centered over
the mid-atlantic to start off the period.  Large scale subsidence
will result in another capped day on Thursday with the llvl easterly
flow tempering potential warming, so that maxes top out close to
climo. On Friday, the magnitude of the upper anticyclone will begin
to diminish as it`s axis drifts south to orient itself atop the
Carolinas, but effectively, will continue to suppress any deep
convective development.  With the attendant sfc hipres center
sinking southward as well, the llvl flow picks up a southerly
component, aiding to boost maximum temperatures to above normal
levels. High temperatures on Friday are still slated to range from
the lower 90s east of the mountains or about 2-4 degrees above
normal, with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 for the mainstem
mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday: Upper ridging lingering atop the region
at the start of the period is still progged to give way to weak
cyclonic flow aloft in response to height falls across the Midwest
and Ohio Valley. As larger scale suppression wanes, isolated,
diurnal, terrain aided storms are possible in the mountains on
Saturday before a return to climatological deep conective chances
cwfawide on Sunday. Perhaps the more notable weekend feature will be
the prominent llvl thermal ridge which should lead to piedmont
maximums in the middle 90s each day, and with an uptick in sfc
dwpts, heat index values could be around 100 in spots on Sunday. The
medium range model consensus lingers/reasserts the 100-85H thickness
ridge atop the region thru the end of the period, so expect little
to no relief to the heat through at least Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conditions to continue thru
the 06 taf period at all terminals. Sct to bkn high clouds will
persist over the area thru the overnight and into the morning,
with few to sct cumulus expected again this aftn/evening. Winds
will be light thru the morning and favor an ELY to SELY direction
overall. They will pick up from the E this aftn and remain ELY
thru the evening with a few low-end gusts possible during the
aftn/early evening. At KAVL, winds will remain light and VRB to
calm thru the morning and then pick up from the SE by the early
aftn with some low-end gusts possible.

Outlook: An expansive upper ridge will keep things mostly dry with
VFR conditions thru Friday. Mtn valley fog and/or low stratus will
be possible most mornings. Diurnal convection could return over the
weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JPT