Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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520 FXUS62 KGSP 151806 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 206 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will remain across the region through the weekend. The high will linger over the region through much of next week keeping temperatures above normal. Isolated diurnal ridgetop showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through Monday. Drier conditions are expected to return Tuesday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cumulus field across the mtns has become more vertically enhanced. However, llvl instability is running into warm mlvls and meager mlvl lapse rates with no good triggering available. Latest RAP soundings suggest a few general tstms and showers developing arnd 19z as LFC parcels possibly break cap. Convective activity will remain mostly relegated to the NC mtns this evening. The models have picked up on a weak north moving sfc bndry late this evening into the overnight. The latest trends have been for more activity along this bndry, but don`t think things will be as strong as what the NamNest is suggesting. So, have introduced slight chance PoPs mainly across the wrn zones thru 09z for mostly showers and isol thunder. Sun Looks to become more convectively active across the mtns as se/ly BL flow develops and upslope enhancement helps produce pulse type storms. Dont anticipate severe level storms as the environ remain neg forced, but a couple cells could reach SPS strength as sbCAPE increases to arnd 1200 J/kg. Lows tonight will remain abv normal with increasing in cloud cover late, while highs Sun return to near normal levels. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 110 PM EDT Saturday: An upper level anticyclone will be in place across the region through the short range period. On Sunday night and Monday, there will enough moisture and upslope flow to create showers and thunderstorms in the mountains. However, as the anticyclone strengthens, a strong drying trend is expected with Tuesday being an entirely dry day. Highs each day will be 2-3 degrees above climo, generally upper 80s in the Piedmont and mid 80s in the mountain valleys. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Saturday: The strong upper anticyclone will settle over the mid-Atlantic region for the middle to end of next week. This will lead to dry conditions and temperatures just a few degrees above climo. There may be an increase in moisture toward the week of the week leading to a return to a normal diurnal chance of showers and storms. Overall, it will be a pretty quiet period. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: A northward moving bndry will likely increase cloud cover overnight and produce MVFR CIGS at KAVL and possibly across the Upstate terminals. These restrictions will be relatively short lived and by 12z all sites shud be VFR. KHKY could also see MVFR CIGs late period as the bndry remains across that area. Precip chances will be sct/isol and confidence is low on any terminal receiving rain or thunder. High pressure centers off the Atl coast overnight, which will allow for e/ly to se/ly winds all sites thru the daytime period. Outlook: More moist, SLY flow returns by early next week and will likely bring some increase in shower and thunderstorm activity each day. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SCW NEAR TERM...SBK SHORT TERM...SCW LONG TERM...SCW AVIATION...SBK