180
FXUS62 KGSP 100251
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1051 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves south of our area becoming stationary through
mid week with dry conditions under weak high pressure for Monday
through Thursday.  Isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected by next weekend as a weak cold front
approaches from the north.  Temperatures are expected to be well
above normal at end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...

1) Another round of sct to numerous showers is likely overnight
and into Monday morning. They should mostly be confined to the
I-85 Corridor and south of it.

2) Dry conditions and cooler temperatures return Monday afternoon.

As of 10:25 PM EDT Sunday: Nearly all of the convective activity
has moved south and east of our CWA with just a small cluster of
thunderstorms still over Chester County at this time. That activity
should move east of the county over the next hour or so. The rest
of the night/overnight should remain fairly quiet with cloud cover
remaining bkn to ovc across most of our area and winds becoming more
NWLY to NLY and weakening speed-wise. Lows should remain near or just
above climatology across our lower terrain and just below climo over
the mtns.

Otherwise, a very broad upper trof/closed upper low will continue
to amplify over the eastern CONUS thru the period. The trof axis
is expected to linger just to our north towards the end of the
period late Monday into early Tuesday. At the sfc, a weak cold
front will stall out just to our south overnight and linger well
into Monday. It will eventually wash out over the Carolina Coast
late Monday into Tuesday as broad Canadian high pressure spreads
over our area. The stalled front along with multiple weak upper
shortwaves will likely generate another round of sct to numerous
showers over the southern half of our CWA overnight and into the
morning. Instability will be lacking so I don`t much if any thunder
with this activity. Precip should diminish over our fcst area by
late morning, however some showers could linger a bit longer over
our southern-most zones. After that, drier air associated with the
sfc high should keep us dry for the rest of the day. Temperatures
will be cooler on Monday, with highs about a category below normal
for the second week of June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Sunday: Short waves drop across the area through
an upper trough on Tuesday. The trough moves east Wednesday with
weakening NW flow over our area. The cold front from the near term
slowly moves south away from the area Tuesday with dry high pressure
building in on Wednesday. Can`t rule out an isolated shower Monday
evening with lingering low level moisture and weak forcing, but
chance too low to include in the forecast for now. It will be breezy
Monday night and Tuesday though. Dry conditions and light winds
expected Wednesday. Below normal lows Monday night rise to near
normal Tuesday night. Near normal highs Tuesday rise a couple of
degrees above normal Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Sunday: Still some run to run consistency issues
with the guidance. That said, there does seem to be a trend toward a
drier forecast. A series of weak short waves move through the flow,
mainly north of our area through Friday. Then a semblance of a Rex
Block develops Saturday into Sunday with an upper anti-cyclone
sliding into the Southeast by Sunday, and a weak upper low moving
east across the Gulf of Mexico. The result is weak and generally dry
high pressure Wednesday and Thursday with the potential for diurnal
convection Saturday as a weak cold front crosses the area. Diurnal
convection possible again Sunday as a moist southerly flow develops.
A warming trend takes place with highs nearly 10 degrees above
normal by Saturday, which drop back a few degrees for Sunday. Lows
rise to around 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The cold front is currently moving thru
our area along with sct to numerous showers and some embedded
thunderstorms. Have TEMPOs for tsra at KCLT and KHKY for the
first couple hrs of the period, with just a vcts at the Upstate
terminals as thunderstorm coverage will be less over that area.
At KAVL, convection is moving SE of the terminal as we speak,
but still kept a TEMPO for heavier showers and 1sm visby for
the first hr of the period. All terminals get a VCSH overnight
and into the morning for another round of showers that are
expected to develop as the front stalls out just to our south.
I remove the vcsh by roughly 08z at KAVL and KHKY as any linger-
ing shower activity should be to their south and/or east by that
time. For the other taf sites, I remove the vcsh later in the
morning as showers could linger longer the further south you
go. Otherwise, cigs should remain low-end VFR thru the morning
and eventually sct out by late morning. There`s still some poten-
tial for lower MVFR cigs to spread over the area from the south
before sunrise. The most likely terminals that would see lower
cigs would be the Upstate sites, however my confidence was not
high enough to include in the tafs at this time. Otherwise, sfc
high pressure will eventually spread over the region Monday aftn
and evening leading to drier conditions and VFR clouds. Winds
will become NWLY to NLY overnight in the wake of the front and
then weaken going light and vrb thru the morning. They will
eventually become SWLY tomorrow aftn outside of the mtns, yet
at KAVL winds will remain NLY to NWLY thru the taf period.

Outlook: Dry sfc high pressure will linger thru mid-week with any
restrictions unlikely.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JPT