059
FXUS62 KGSP 060533
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
133 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and
linger into the evening. Dry Canadian air will mix across the area
Friday and persist into the weekend. A chance of thunderstorms
returns to the region Sunday, before deeply dry air builds back in
Monday though Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 131 AM Thursday: An arcing band of weakening showers is
quickly racing towards the Upstate and western North Carolina early
this morning. This activity should continue to diminish with time as
it moves into the area with mainly scattered showers over the next
several hours. Have tweaked PoPs accordingly, otherwise the rest of
the forecast remains on track for the remainder of the overnight.

The overnight hours will feature mostly dry conditions (although yet
again, recent HRRR and RAP runs are hinting at a wave of isolated
morning showers for the Upstate around daybreak) and the development
of another deck of low stratus and patchy fog incited by a still-
moist boundary layer. Guidance depicts this scattering out more
quickly than it did today, as stronger WAA picks up ahead of an
advancing cold front. The leading edge of this circulation should
arrive by evening, and ahead of it, another round of afternoon
convection is depicted by virtually all the guidance.  Severe risk
still looks hampered by weak shear...but 0-6km shear, particularly
over the NC Piedmont out to the I-77 corridor, approach 20kts,
enough that some strong to severe storms cannot be completely ruled
out.  And, with the front slowed in the latest 12z cycle of
operational guidance, it arrives late enough for 1700-2300 J/kg
sbCAPE to develop.  Therefore, an isolated damaging wind risk can`t
be ruled out with any segments that manage to get organized Thursday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1255 AM Thursday...The short range period remains dry as deep
nw/ly flow commences while a subTrop high shifts east across the srn
Plains. This pattern will support a Canadian sfc high building south
bringing lowering column moisture to the FA. Cooler temps are
associated with this high as well, but downsloping h9-h8 flow will
modify the airmass warmer and allow for max temps arnd normal levels
Fri and Sat. Along with increasing subsidence, the llvls will dry
out with the downsloping and make for dry afternoons with RH values
dropping into the 30 percent range each day. Not much cloud cover
outside of Ci Fri and lowering clouds aloft by Sat afternoon. Mins
will fall to normal levels Thu night and abt 5 degrees cooler Sat
night with no great fog threat each morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 115 AM Thursday...No sigfnt changes were made to the ext range
fcst outside of lowering PoPs a bit Sun and Mon. The atmos becomes
more dynamic Sat night with a stg embedded h5 s/w traversing the flow
thru Sun morning. Low level moisture will be limited and only expect
increasing mlvl cloud cover thru mid day. A cold front makes it to
the NC mtns Sun afternoon, but with little upper support, expect the
best precip chances across the NC mtn/fthills due to added mech
lift. Decent agreement is had in the guidance with the progression
of the front as it tracks across the FA during the evening and
overnight. The atmos remains quite stable ahead of the front, but
increasing sfc convg could spawn a few general tstms east of the
mtns by late afternoon Sun. Another dry Canadian airmass mixes in Mon
and likely lingers into Tue, which will make for low RH values
during the afternoon periods. The next chance of precip will be Wed
as moist return flow ensues. Temps will pretty much remain arnd
normal levels each day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Periodic restrictions will continue to plague
all terminals through the TAF period. Things start out complicated
early this morning with a mix of low stratus, high clouds and an
arcing band of showers moving towards the Upstate from Georgia that
could disrupt the formation of low stratus. A brief period of light
showers will be possible at KAND, KGMU, KGSP and KAVL as the band of
weakening showers moves in over the next several hours. This will
delay the onset of possible low stratus across the Upstate. Farther
east, at KHKY and KCLT, the band of showers shouldn`t have as much
of an influence with stratus possible earlier. Winds should keep fog
from being an issue tonight. What low stratus that does develop
should lift/scatter through the morning with VFR returning to all
terminals. Winds this afternoon will be gusty out of the southwest
ahead of an approaching cold front. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon ahead of the frontal
boundary. Temporary visibility and ceiling restrictions can be
expected with any storms along with gusty winds out of the
northwest. Winds will shift to out of the north at KAVL by this
evening, but the wind shift will just outside of the TAF period for
the rest of the terminals.

Outlook: Drier air moves into the area by Friday morning with
improving conditions into the weekend. High pressure will linger
through Saturday before another system approaches by the start of
the new work week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...MPR/TW
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...TW