382
FXUS62 KGSP 270725
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
325 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures move closer to normal through the weekend. Afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. A weak cold front
may reach the region by Tuesday and stall by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 155 AM EDT Friday: The broad flow and typical summertime
pattern continues as the weekend gets started. Slight height falls
as the high pressure moves offshore and a very weak area of low
pressure slides over the southeast. At the surface, southerly flow
remains the dominant direction, keeping a slow uptick of moisture
advecting into the area. Meanwhile, a few areas could see some
patchy low-level stratus or fog near daybreak given the smaller
dewpoint depression and near calm winds. Should clear up by
daybreak. As for Friday, expect another afternoon of pop-up
convection, typical for this time of year. Plenty of instability
including over 1000 J/kg of dCAPE, giving way for an environment
supporting downbursts in any storm that develops. So the primary
threat remains strong to damaging winds. Most of the storms should
weaken into Friday evening as peak heating passes. Depending on what
areas can get rain, there is a chance for some more low-level
stratus and patchy fog tonight. As far as temperatures, expect a
tick cooler than what was experienced earlier in the week. Low 90s
east of the mountains and overnight lows dipping into the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 am EDT Friday: A rather typical summer pattern will be
in place through the short term, with a surface Bermuda high and
associated ridge over the western Atlantic allowing for southerly
flow and higher-than-normal levels of moisture over the Southeast,
while a weakness in the subtropical ridge aloft will create an
overall favorable synoptic regime for convection. These factors
combined with seasonably hot conditions/robust destabilization
during the daylight hours are expected to support above-normal
coverage of diurnal convection through the period, with general
60-80 PoPs over the mountains, and 40-60% chances elsewhere. Very
weak wind shear/cloud-bearing winds will result in slow
cell movement less than 10 kts, with attendant potential for
locally excessive rainfall...especially in light of above-normal
precipitable water values. However, a few pulse severe thunderstorms
will be possible, especially on Saturday, when model signals suggest
sbCAPE will exceed 2500 J/kg during the afternoon. Forecast temps
are a couple of degrees above climo through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 am EDT Friday: Little change in the synoptic pattern is
expected over the region until Tuesday, with Bermuda high at the
surface supporting southerly flow/plenty of low level moisture
across the Southeast, and a weakness in the subtropical ridge
persisting aloft early in the period. Another round of above-normal
diurnal convective coverage is therefore expected on Monday, with
continued potential for slow-moving cells/locally excessive rainfall
and perhaps a handful of pulse severe storms. By late Tuesday,
the southern periphery of a short wave trough is expected to brush
the forecast area, accompanied by a weak surface boundary that
is expected to support another round of robust diurnal convective
coverage Tue afternoon/evening. A slight improvement in mid-level
flow could allow for an uptick in the severe storm threat, while
the potential for locally excessive rainfall will continue.

Confidence at this point is low regarding whether the surface
boundary will clear the area sufficiently to allow lower theta-E
air to filter into the CWA during mid-week...possibly reducing
the convective potential. However, there is enough of a signal
in global model guidance to allow diurnal PoPs to diminish to
levels more typical of early summer by Thursday. Forecast temps
are expected to remain slightly above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions prevail for most terminals
through the TAF period. Overnight, a few areas of BR and low stratus
will form in the typical mountain valleys and near lakes, especially
near terminals that received any rain today. Confidence is higher
for some MVFR restrictions at KAVL in the early morning hours. So a
TEMPO from 09z-12z. Winds remain VRB to calm overnight and are slow
to pickup during the morning, but should resume out of the SW at all
sites. This afternoon, expect another round of pop-up showers and
TSRA. For this, PROB30s at all sites. TSRA should diminish closer to
00z again.

Outlook: Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms into next week. Fog and/or low stratus possible each
morning in the usual mountain valleys as well as near lakes and
rivers.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CP