483
FXUS62 KGSP 101820
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
220 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front remains across the Gulf Coast to the Georgia
coast through mid week with dry conditions under weak high pressure.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
by next weekend as a weak cold front approaches from the north.
Temperatures are expected to be well above normal at end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday: A trough situated north of the CWA will
progress eastward as a strong ridge axis over the central/northern
CONUS amplifies. Flow aloft starts off in a quasi-zonal state and
becomes more of a broad NW direction by the end of the period.
Meanwhile, a weakened frontal boundary sags south of the area and
takes the last bits of QPF with it. Behind the front, a modest
amount of moisture lingers with PWATS near 1.0 inch as weak
northerly flow slows down the arrival of drier air. By Tuesday
morning, PWATS will start to decrease as the drier, sfc high
pressure arrives and mixes down the dewpoints a bit. Throughout
Tuesday, the higher pressure expands toward the east, toggling sfc
winds N/NE and keeps the area dry. Temperatures overnight will be
the coolest night of the week and highs on Tuesday start to rebound
with temps near climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday: High pressure settles in over the area from
the northeast through the period as some weak short waves move
through the NW flow aloft, mainly north of the area. Guidance
continues to show cyclogenesis taking place off the FL Coast
Wednesday with it slowly moving E or NE. However, the global models
continue to show it relatively weak and far enough south and east
for little effect on our weather. The NAM and SREF show it stronger
and far enough north for moisture to move in on southeasterly flow.
Model blend keeps the forecast dry, so have followed that trend for
now, but given the disagreement, the forecast could change. Highs
near normal Wednesday rise 5 degrees on Thursday. Lows start out as
much as 5 degrees below normal and rise about 5 degrees Wednesday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Monday: Guidance coming into better agreement for
this period. Upper trough moves east Friday with an anti-cyclone
building over the area Saturday. This remains in place Sunday and
moves toward the Carolina coast Monday. During this time a weak
upper low develops in the Gulf of Mexico, approaching the MS Delta
Sunday and moves into the Lower MS Valley Monday. A weak cold front
drops toward the area Friday, across the area Saturday then
dissipates on Sunday as high pressure builds in from the northeast.
Some weak southerly flow develops between the high center and a weak
surface low associated with the upper low. The guidance agrees on
the weak southerly flow remaining over our area Monday with any
stronger southerly flow, and deeper moisture, to our west closer to
the surface low moving on shore. The result is slowly increasing,
mainly diurnal, PoP through the period. Isolated convection
Saturday, and scattered Sunday and Monday, favoring the mountains
and southerly upslope areas each day. Well above normal highs
expected Friday and Saturday, with mid 90s possible outside of the
mountains, then fall as much as 5 degrees Sunday and a couple more
degrees on Monday. Lows remain above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions for all terminals through the
end of the period. Showers have moved out of the area with drier air
slowly coming in. This will help keep CIGS at most SCT stratocu this
afternoon. No VSBY concerns at this time. Winds are expected to
remain light, but toggle NW/NE and at times could become VRB. Higher
pressure at the surface will move eastward overnight and turn winds
NE. Gusts are not expected, though KAVL has registered very low-end
g15. All in all, quiet weather and VFR.

Outlook: Dry sfc high pressure remains through the end of the work
week, with little chance for convection or restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CP