676
FXUS62 KGSP 171721
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
121 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure atop the region from Tuesday through Thursday will
suppress any storms from developing until moisture returns on Friday
and into the weekend.  Expect the weekend to be quite hot.  A cold
front approaches from the north early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1145 AM EDT Monday...No major changes were needed this update
as the forecast remains on track. Thicker cloud cover continues
across the eastern half of the forecast area with lower cloud cover
noted across the central and southern NC mountains. Daytime cumulus
have developed east of the mountains thanks to great insolation.

Extensive upper ridging will remain centered just to our NE and
continue to dominate the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS thru the near-term
period. At the sfc, the center of robust high pressure will
gradually drift SE and away from the New England Coast today and
tonight but still dominate the synoptic pattern down the entire
Eastern Seaboard. This will keep low-lvl SELY flow over our area
today but also begin to advect some lower theta-E air into our
eastern zones. With the upper ridge in place, deep-layer flow will
also become increasingly weak with mid-level lapse rates remaining
fairly weak as well. This should favor diurnal convection over the
mtns, where it will likely remain confined thru the day/evening.
This is reflected in the PoPs, which are low-end likely across most
of the mtns to only a slight chance over our SE zones. Sfc-based
instability may be sufficient to support a brief pulse severe storm
or two, but locally heavy/excessive rainfall will probably be a
bigger threat owing to the expected slow cell motion. High temps
should top out a degree or two above climatology for mid-June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 AM EDT Monday: The effects of the building stout
Mid-Atlantic/NE upper anticyclone is expected to suppress any deep
convective development atop the region on both Tuesday and
Wednesday, save for isolated diurnally fired ridgetop shower
chances.  Despite 595/6dm 50H height values atop the Carolinas, llvl
easterly flow will temper warming, and maximum temperatures remain
progged to be just around climo each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Monday: The cwfa is progged to be within the
southern periphery of the strong anticyclone centered along the mid-
Atlantic coast to start off the period. Essentially a
persistence forecast for Thursday, a continued suppressed
atmosphere with high temperatures right around the mid-June
climo. Upper ridging will be breaking down on Friday, and as the
llvl flow veers to southerly, expect an uptick in sfc dwpts and
temperatures. Piedmont lower 90s will be possible for maximums,
and as the atmosphere becomes weakly unstable, a few diurnally
fired tstms will be possible. Temperatures will continue to warm
throughout the upcoming weekend thanks to the mean lvll flow
around developing Bermuda high pressure. Piedmont temperatures
could be flirting with middle 90s each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: SCT to BKN MVFR to VFR daytime cumulus are
noted across the terminals this afternoon with some upper level
cirrus pushing in from the east. Scattered SHRA/TSRA has developed
across the western NC mountains, so have VCTS at KAVL through 21Z to
account for the afternoon activity. Cumulus should gradually
dissipate around sunset with VFR returning for all sites this
evening into Tuesday morning. The exception will be the NC mountains
as mountain valley fog is expected to develop again overnight into
daybreak Tuesday. Thus, have MVFR cigs and vsbys to account for this
at KAVL (although IFR cigs may be possible right around daybreak).
Maintained dry conditions at the rest of the terminals as convection
should be confined to the higher terrain. Winds will generally be
S/SE through early Tuesday morning before winds toggle more E late
Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon. Winds should generally
range from 4-6 kts this afternoon and 5-10 kts Tuesday afternoon.
Low-end gusts are possible Tuesday afternoon but confidence was too
low to mention at this time. Dry conditions are expected on Tuesday
and another round of diurnal cumulus expected.

Outlook: An upper ridge will result in mostly dry and VFR conditions
through Friday. Mountain valley fog and/or low stratus may develop
each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR/JPT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...AR