263
FXUS62 KGSP 191442
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1042 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure atop the region will suppress any storms from
developing this week until moisture returns on Saturday. A heat
wave gets underway on Friday and remains hot through the weekend.
A weak cold front approaches from the north early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Wednesday: Broad upper ridging will remain
centered over the mid-Atlantic states and help keep the atmosphere
suppressed thru the near-term period. At the sfc, sprawling high
pressure will continue to dominate much of the Atlantic basin and
keep relatively dry, ELY low-level flow over the Carolinas today.
This will help support a relatively low theta-E airmass beneath warm
mid-level temps. Afternoon instability will be very limited, with
only trivial values of sfc-based CAPE expected. Thus, PoPs remain
below 10% across our CWA thru the afternoon. Highs today should be
similar to yesterday (Tuesday)...very close to climatology.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1205 AM EDT Wednesday: The cwfa is still expecting to be
within the southern periphery of strong 597 dm ridge centered over
the mid-atlantic to start off the period.  Large scale subsidence
will result in another capped day on Thursday with the llvl easterly
flow tempering potential warming, so that maxes top out close to
climo. On Friday, the magnitude of the upper anticyclone will begin
to diminish as it`s axis drifts south to orient itself atop the
Carolinas, but effectively, will continue to suppress any deep
convective development.  With the attendant sfc hipres center
sinking southward as well, the llvl flow picks up a southerly
component, aiding to boost maximum temperatures to above normal
levels. High temperatures on Friday are still slated to range from
the lower 90s east of the mountains or about 2-4 degrees above
normal, with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 for the mainstem
mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday: Upper ridging lingering atop the region
at the start of the period is still progged to give way to weak
cyclonic flow aloft in response to height falls across the Midwest
and Ohio Valley. As larger scale suppression wanes, isolated,
diurnal, terrain aided storms are possible in the mountains on
Saturday before a return to climatological deep convective
chances cwfa-wide on Sunday. Perhaps the more notable weekend
feature will be the prominent llvl thermal ridge which should
lead to piedmont maximums in the middle 90s each day, and with
an uptick in sfc dwpts, heat index values could be around 100 in
spots on Sunday. The medium range model consensus
lingers/reasserts the 100-85H thickness ridge atop the region
thru the end of the period, so expect little to no relief to the
heat through at least Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conditions to continue thru
the 12z taf period at all terminals. Sct to bkn high clouds will
persist over the area thru the morning, with few to sct cumulus
expected again this aftn/evening. KAVL is currently observing
MVFR cigs, but I expect they will sct out by 14z or so. Winds
will be light thru the morning and pick up from the E this aftn
and remain ELY thru the evening with a few low-end gusts possible
during the aftn/early evening. Winds will go light to calm again
later tonight. At KAVL, winds will remain calm thru most of the
morning and then pick up from the SE by the early aftn with some
low-end gusts possible.

Outlook: An expansive upper ridge will keep things mostly dry
with VFR conditions thru Fri. Mtn valley fog and/or low stratus
will be possible each morning. Diurnal convection could return
over the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JDL/JPT
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JPT