Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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242 FXUS62 KGSP 291745 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 145 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the region at the start of the weekend. Once the high moves off to our east on Sunday, we should see a slow warm up with a return of the mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 PM: Omega block in full force across the central and eastern CONUS. Water vapor imagery shows trough over the upper OH Valley and Northeast, with nearly cutoff embedded shortwave spinning near Pittsburgh. Via this pattern, some degree of DPVA will occur over our area this aftn and evening although the shortwave will pass by to our north. Similar to yesterday, a relatively shallow convective layer will be present beneath this feature but still capped by subsidence inversion. Some congested or towering cumulus thus may be seen across the CWA thru evening, perhaps resulting in brief, isolated sprinkles, but chance of measurable rainfall still looks near zero. Deep mixing will result in low- end wind gusts at times. A dry, reinforcing cold front will push across the area overnight behind the departing shortwave, promoting a further decline in dewpoints. Despite temps also trending a few degrees below normal, the drying should make for a fog-free night once again, except for some of the SW NC mountain valleys. Temps likewise end up a little below normal for Thu. Another embedded shortwave will rotate thru the trough late Thu but without enough moisture to justify mentionable PoPs. Mixing won`t be as deep but a few cumulus again will pop out. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1205 PM EDT Wednesday: No changes to the going forecast to round out the month of May as we remain under dry Northerly flow aloft on Friday. In the wake of vort energy rippling toward the base of eastern seaboard trough axis, full sunshine is expected with Piedmont maximums around 80 along with surface dwpts well below climo. Progressive upper ridge axis builds into and translates across the region on Saturday and the llvl flow will come around to south. This will aid in boosting maximums a couple of deg F above Friday`s readings. The atmosphere will also become weakly unstable Saturday afternoon, and coincident with weak Ohio Valley s/wv energy skirting by, there could be a few showers developing in the NC mountains. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday: Diurnally enhanced summer-like thunderstorm chances return to the forecast for the latter half of the upcoming weekend as a quasi-zonal wavy pattern develops atop the SE CONUS. In fact, there is little disernable change expected for the daily sensible weather through the early part of next week as tiggering mechanisms for daily thunderstorm chances will be driven by a mix of synoptic scale s/wv and mesoscale features, along with the typical terrain aided forcing here in the southern Appalachians. Temperatures will be warming through the period, maximums rising to the early June climo on Monday, but into the upper 80s by Wednesday. Along with a daily increase in sfc dwpts will promote summertime heat and humidity by the middle of next week as well. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR. A few congested cumulus will be seen this aftn and evening at the top of the deep mixed layer but rain not expected. A few low-end gusts of 15-20 kt will occur; winds should prevail from the NW quadrant although some variability will occur at the SC sites. Reinforcing dry cold front may keep some cu into the evening, but in general front should promote further drying so no fog expected at daybreak Thu at any of the TAF sites. Lighter, less gusty winds and fewer cumulus on Thu. Outlook: VFR conditions will persist with the drier weather conditions through the end of the workweek. Shower and thunderstorm chances may return for the weekend. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...Wimberley SHORT TERM...CSH LONG TERM...CSH AVIATION...Wimberley