Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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180 FXUS62 KGSP 100251 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1051 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves south of our area becoming stationary through mid week with dry conditions under weak high pressure for Monday through Thursday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected by next weekend as a weak cold front approaches from the north. Temperatures are expected to be well above normal at end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages... 1) Another round of sct to numerous showers is likely overnight and into Monday morning. They should mostly be confined to the I-85 Corridor and south of it. 2) Dry conditions and cooler temperatures return Monday afternoon. As of 10:25 PM EDT Sunday: Nearly all of the convective activity has moved south and east of our CWA with just a small cluster of thunderstorms still over Chester County at this time. That activity should move east of the county over the next hour or so. The rest of the night/overnight should remain fairly quiet with cloud cover remaining bkn to ovc across most of our area and winds becoming more NWLY to NLY and weakening speed-wise. Lows should remain near or just above climatology across our lower terrain and just below climo over the mtns. Otherwise, a very broad upper trof/closed upper low will continue to amplify over the eastern CONUS thru the period. The trof axis is expected to linger just to our north towards the end of the period late Monday into early Tuesday. At the sfc, a weak cold front will stall out just to our south overnight and linger well into Monday. It will eventually wash out over the Carolina Coast late Monday into Tuesday as broad Canadian high pressure spreads over our area. The stalled front along with multiple weak upper shortwaves will likely generate another round of sct to numerous showers over the southern half of our CWA overnight and into the morning. Instability will be lacking so I don`t much if any thunder with this activity. Precip should diminish over our fcst area by late morning, however some showers could linger a bit longer over our southern-most zones. After that, drier air associated with the sfc high should keep us dry for the rest of the day. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday, with highs about a category below normal for the second week of June. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 205 PM EDT Sunday: Short waves drop across the area through an upper trough on Tuesday. The trough moves east Wednesday with weakening NW flow over our area. The cold front from the near term slowly moves south away from the area Tuesday with dry high pressure building in on Wednesday. Can`t rule out an isolated shower Monday evening with lingering low level moisture and weak forcing, but chance too low to include in the forecast for now. It will be breezy Monday night and Tuesday though. Dry conditions and light winds expected Wednesday. Below normal lows Monday night rise to near normal Tuesday night. Near normal highs Tuesday rise a couple of degrees above normal Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 PM EDT Sunday: Still some run to run consistency issues with the guidance. That said, there does seem to be a trend toward a drier forecast. A series of weak short waves move through the flow, mainly north of our area through Friday. Then a semblance of a Rex Block develops Saturday into Sunday with an upper anti-cyclone sliding into the Southeast by Sunday, and a weak upper low moving east across the Gulf of Mexico. The result is weak and generally dry high pressure Wednesday and Thursday with the potential for diurnal convection Saturday as a weak cold front crosses the area. Diurnal convection possible again Sunday as a moist southerly flow develops. A warming trend takes place with highs nearly 10 degrees above normal by Saturday, which drop back a few degrees for Sunday. Lows rise to around 10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: The cold front is currently moving thru our area along with sct to numerous showers and some embedded thunderstorms. Have TEMPOs for tsra at KCLT and KHKY for the first couple hrs of the period, with just a vcts at the Upstate terminals as thunderstorm coverage will be less over that area. At KAVL, convection is moving SE of the terminal as we speak, but still kept a TEMPO for heavier showers and 1sm visby for the first hr of the period. All terminals get a VCSH overnight and into the morning for another round of showers that are expected to develop as the front stalls out just to our south. I remove the vcsh by roughly 08z at KAVL and KHKY as any linger- ing shower activity should be to their south and/or east by that time. For the other taf sites, I remove the vcsh later in the morning as showers could linger longer the further south you go. Otherwise, cigs should remain low-end VFR thru the morning and eventually sct out by late morning. There`s still some poten- tial for lower MVFR cigs to spread over the area from the south before sunrise. The most likely terminals that would see lower cigs would be the Upstate sites, however my confidence was not high enough to include in the tafs at this time. Otherwise, sfc high pressure will eventually spread over the region Monday aftn and evening leading to drier conditions and VFR clouds. Winds will become NWLY to NLY overnight in the wake of the front and then weaken going light and vrb thru the morning. They will eventually become SWLY tomorrow aftn outside of the mtns, yet at KAVL winds will remain NLY to NWLY thru the taf period. Outlook: Dry sfc high pressure will linger thru mid-week with any restrictions unlikely. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...JPT SHORT TERM...RWH LONG TERM...RWH AVIATION...JPT